United List, the formation of Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, leads the exit poll of the elections in Latvia held this Saturday, October 3. The survey by the public broadcaster LSM, collected by Reuters, attributes to it 35.6%, compared to 11.3% for Latvia First. The difference between both candidacies reaches 24.3 points. These are estimates, pending confirmation by the counting.
The result anticipates a favorable position for Kulbergs, although the continuity of the Government will depend on agreements between parties. Winning the elections and gathering the necessary support to govern are the two challenges of this electoral night.
Citizens are electing the 100 members of the Saeima, the Latvian Parliament, for the next four years. The final composition of the Chamber will reveal which combinations can support the next Executive.
The Government negotiation, the next battle
The coalition arriving at these elections brings together United List, New Unity, the Union of Greens and Farmers, and the National Alliance. During the campaign, forecasts pointed to difficulties in maintaining that alliance with its current composition, according to Euronews.
Therefore, even a clear victory for United List would leave the subsequent negotiation open. The counting will determine how much weight their current partners have and what alternatives exist to form a majority. It is not enough to directly translate the percentages from the poll into a distribution of power.
Russia and the cost of living mark the elections
National security and economic pressure on households have been at the center of the campaign. Latvia belongs to the European Union and NATO and shares a border with Russia, a circumstance that places defense among the country's major concerns.
Kulbergs took office in May, after a political crisis related to the management of incidents with drones. His arrival in the Government preceded these elections, in which he seeks to consolidate his leadership through an electoral mandate. Latvia has maintained strong support for Ukraine against the Russian invasion.
When will the results of Latvia be known
The first partial figures are expected during the night of Saturday and the preliminary official results on Sunday. Until then, the poll offers a first orientation on the vote, but does not replace the counting nor confirm the distribution of seats.
Attention now shifts from the advantage of Lista Unida to the composition of Parliament: which parties gain representation, how many deputies each one gathers, and what margin they leave to negotiate the next Government.