Teruel not only exists but matters: three seats and a resignation that divides the left

Teruel will again elect only three deputies in the general elections on November 29, but this time it is not clear that all leftist forces will be on the ballot. Chunta Aragonesista (CHA) has decided that its coalition with Frente Amplio will not run for Congress in this province, a resignation that aims to avoid the fragmentation of the progressive vote and has caused a confrontation with Izquierda Unida, a member of the same alliance.

The president of CHA, Jorge Pueyo, announced this Wednesday that the coalition will concentrate its candidacies for Congress in Zaragoza and Huesca, while in Teruel it will only run for the Senate elections, as part of the joint candidacy with the PSOE.

Pueyo has defended the withdrawal as a way to favor a progressive majority in Congress. "With this decision, Chunta Aragonesista has listened to the numerous requests received to act with generosity and responsibility, and not for partisan interest, with the aim of avoiding the dispersion of the vote and doing everything possible to achieve a progressive majority, both in Congress and in the Senate," he explained.

However, Izquierda Unida does not share either the procedure or the electoral argument. Its coordinator in Aragón, Marta Abengoechea, has denounced that the withdrawal is a unilateral decision by CHA and has questioned whether renouncing to run is the best way to defend the interests of the province.

A divided coalition

IU had already rejected during the coalition negotiation that CHA could decide on its own whether to present a candidacy in Teruel. As Abengoechea explained on Cadena SER, the clause ended up being incorporated into the agreement despite the opposition of her party.

"We never agreed with the introduction of that clause because we thought it was a very important decision and contrary to our political culture and our project for all of Aragón," the leader stated.

IU believes that the citizens of Teruel should have a candidacy to the left of the PSOE regardless of the chances of obtaining representation. "It is important that all people, wherever they live, have an option to vote to the left of the PSOE. The voice of Teruel cannot count for less," Abengoechea defended.

The coordinator has also questioned whether the risk of vote dispersion justifies the withdrawal in this province and not in others with similar difficulties in obtaining representation. IU does not rule out promoting another electoral formula, although its priority remains that the coalition finally presents a joint candidacy.

The controversy arises, moreover, in a scenario where Podemos will indeed run in the general elections for Teruel. Therefore, the withdrawal of CHA-Frente Amplio does not eliminate all alternatives to the left of the PSOE, but it does reduce the electoral offer and leaves out of the Congress ballot the alliance that both organizations had agreed to constitute in Aragón.

Three deputies and a demanding distribution

Teruel is one of the smallest constituencies in Congress. The province elects three deputies using the D'Hondt system, a proportional formula that, applied to such a small number of seats, considerably complicates access for minority candidacies.

In the last general elections, held on July 23, 2023, the PP obtained two deputies with 35.1% of the votes and the PSOE obtained one with 29.2%. Teruel Existe, which had burst into Congress in 2019, lost its representation despite gathering 15% of the votes.

Vox also did not obtain a seat with 13.1%, while Sumar, which at that time grouped a good part of the alternative left, achieved 5.4%.

The calculations of the withdrawal

In the 2023 general elections, the PSOE lacked 4,448 votes to take the PP's second deputy for Teruel. Sumar obtained 4,081, so even a complete transfer of its support to the socialists would not have altered the distribution, which was two seats for the popular party and one for the PSOE. The calculation assumes that the other candidacies would have maintained their results.

Current estimates also do not offer too many certainties about the usefulness of the withdrawal. Polling Forecast attributes 31.7% of the votes to the PP, 23.3% to the PSOE, and 18.6% to Vox, percentages with which each formation would obtain one deputy. To achieve a second representative, the socialists would have to exceed 31.7%, something they would not achieve even by fully incorporating the 2.6% attributed to Sumar.

In any case, although CHA trusts that its absence will allow the progressive vote to concentrate, nothing assures that those who were thinking of supporting Frente Amplio will lean towards the PSOE. Podemos could collect part of those votes, while other voters might opt for abstention.

The political cost for Frente Amplio

The coalition of Ada Colau, which aims to build a political alternative differentiated from the PSOE, has decided, however, to renounce competing with it in Teruel. The decision may fuel criticism about its autonomy regarding the socialists, like the one already expressed by Gabriel Rufián on the social network X about the convenience of leftist forces withdrawing in some constituencies to favor the vote for the PSOE.

Thus, Podemos could present itself in the province as the only alternative to the left of the PSOE. Frente Amplio, on the other hand, will disappear from the ballot of the Congress and will lose the opportunity to claim its ballot.