Without a candidate, nor alliances and with a path to travel to reach the desired single ballot. This is how the electoral advance caught the possible left, the left that has accompanied the PSOE inside and outside the Government under different leaderships and names in the last eight years.
The margin to reach an agreement is narrow: according to the deadlines of the Organic Law of the General Electoral Regime, coalitions must communicate their constitution before the end of October 16. The submitted lists will be published on October 28 and the proclaimed candidacies on November 2.
Precisely one day after the deadline to present candidacies, on October 17, the coalition formed by Movimiento Sumar, Izquierda Unida, Más Madrid, and the Comuns plans to present its project and head of the list for the elections.
To that timeline is added the proposal from Podemos, led by Irene Montero, to hold meetings on October 14 and 15 and define the candidates to be presented.
Fight together, die alone
The Spanish electoral system distributes the seats of Congress by provinces using the D'Hondt formula, which considerably reduces the representation possibilities of small parties outside the most populated territories.
In provinces that elect three, four, or five deputies, a candidacy can gather a significant percentage of votes and end up without representation if other forces concentrate their support better. A coalition would allow accumulating votes and competing for more seats, in addition to leveraging electoral mobilization.
If Pedro Sánchez aspires to govern again, he needs his possible allies on the left to obtain enough deputies to build, along with territorial formations like ERC and EH Bildu, an alternative majority to PP and Vox.
Where is the problem?
Despite the differences in program and strategy that may exist, the greatest discrepancy is of personal affinity and, above all, the preparation of the lists to place leaders in positions with more representation possibilities.
Ada Colau, candidate who demands consensus
The former mayor of Barcelona stands as the figure around which the different parties are studying to build the new candidacy. Her profile offers a possible meeting point between organizations that maintain significant differences.
And, for greater benefit, Colau conditions her participation on the existence of a broad agreement capable of integrating all the formations, including Podemos.
Comuns: you to Madrid and I to Barcelona
In the Catalan organization, they do not officially want to talk about lists, but rather focus first on the necessary agreements to form a coalition as broad as possible. But knowledgeable sources of the negotiations indicate that their idea is to place Ada Colau as the head of the list for Madrid and Ernest Urtasun as number one for Barcelona.
By placing Colau in Madrid, the Comuns would leave the first position in Barcelona for Urtasun and increase their chances of achieving representation on their lists.
Más Madrid: 'there's no room for so many people'
She has ended up leaning towards Colau, after among her options was the Minister of Health, Mónica García, who had decided months ago to run again for the Community of Madrid, after an internal struggle with Emilio Delgado, which placed the latter in a starting position for the general elections.
The formation prefers that Colau heads the list for Barcelona, which would leave them more space in Madrid to place their own candidates, among whom are the aforementioned Garcia and Delgado, the deputy Tesh Sidi, and the councilor Eduardo Fernández Rubiño.
The entry of Podemos complicates that distribution. Más Madrid is one of the organizations that has shown the most reservations about the incorporation of the purples, both due to the accumulated differences between their leaders --the party was established as a split from the purples-- and due to the direct competition for the positions in Madrid.
Moreover, if Podemos were to integrate into the Frente Amplio, in Más Madrid they have even suggested that Irene Montero, head of the purples and from Madrid, accompany Colau in Barcelona.
Podemos: primaries, primaries, primaries
Scarred from the last negotiation to form Sumar, in which Irene Montero was vetoed, Podemos demands primaries to decide the candidates that they have already launched on a specific website.
The narrow margin (and the little willingness of the rest of the formations) does not invite optimism. The registration of pre-candidacies starts this Friday and ends on Sunday.
Their main interest is to secure a prominent position for Irene Montero in Madrid, where a good part of the aspirations of their possible allies are also concentrated.
Izquierda Unida: first, global agreement
United Left shares the bet on Colau, according to sources knowledgeable about the negotiations, although it has criticized the public bet launched by Más Madrid, with whom it already has a coalition agreement.
The formation defends that the preparation of the candidacies should be part of a global pact among the parties, avoiding that each organization closes its positions separately before determining the scope of the coalition.
Its objective is to preserve its own representation within a space that could lose deputies compared to the last elections. Its launched candidate is Toni Valero.
And Rufián, what?
After defending for months the need to build a leftist alliance at the state level, the possibility that Gabriel Rufián would lead a candidacy has been losing strength due to his reiteration of the will to lead Esquerra Republicana (and his party's rejection of integrating into a coalition).
In recent hours, several media have published the idea of ERC working with a plan B with an alternative candidate if Rufián did not head the lists. The one who has been the parliamentary spokesperson for the republicans in Madrid publicly expressed in a message on X his willingness to represent ERC, but "accompanied by other leftist forces": "This cannot be won alone."
The Valencian case, an example of a single ballot?
While the state leftist parties negotiate the composition of the Broad Front, Compromís has taken the initiative in the Community of Valencia to promote a single candidacy to the left of the PSOE in the three provinces, with the intention of integrating Esquerra Unida, Podemos, Sumar, and Esquerra Republicana del País Valencià.
The proposal aims to avoid the dispersion of the vote, although with a particularity: the Valencianist coalition wants to lead the agreement from the territory, without being subordinated to the state structure of the Broad Front. It is not yet an electoral pre-agreement among all the parties, but rather an initiative supported by the different sensitivities that make up Compromís.
The Valencianist formation demands to head the candidacy and maintain its own identity, a position that has also been defended by Joan Baldoví, who demands that the name of Compromís appears on the ballot.
The Valencian proposal thus introduces a different formula than the one being negotiated in Madrid and Barcelona. Compromís aims to concentrate leftist forces in a common candidacy, but without integrating organically into the state-wide Frente Amplio. The agreement is still pending finalization and the resolution of the distribution of positions, although its promoters believe that electoral unity can be built from each territory without the need to share the same political structure throughout Spain.