The PP would win the general elections with 32.4% of the votes and 134 seats, according to the DATA10 survey for OKDIARIO published this 9 November. The PSOE would obtain 24.7% and 97 deputies, while Vox would reach 19.8% and 69 representatives. The gap between the Popular Party and the Socialists would be 7.7 points and 37 seats. PP and Vox would add up to 52.2% of the vote and 203 deputies, 27 above the absolute majority; with the two representatives that the study assigns separately to UPN, they would reach 205.
PSOE loses 13 seats since October and Vox gains five
Comparison with the newspaper’s previous poll, published on 5 October, shows a PSOE setback of 1.4 points and 13 seats, from 110 to 97. The PP also loses representation, going from 139 to 134 deputies, while Vox advances from 64 to 69. The combined total of Popular Party and Vox remains, therefore, at 203 seats: the internal distribution of the right changes, but not its joint parliamentary strength.
Broad Front would rise to 6.9% of the vote and 14 deputies, nine more than in October. Podemos would obtain 3.1% and two representatives. PSOE, Broad Front and Podemos would bring together 113 seats, compared with the 203 for PP and Vox. Among the territorial forces, ERC would secure nine deputies; EH Bildu, seven; Junts, six; PNV, four; Adelante Andalucía, three; BNG and UPN, two each; and Coalición Canaria, one. SALF would reach 1.5%, without representation.
What changes compared with 23J
Ahead of the July 2023 elections, the PP would lose three seats, the PSOE would fall back 24, and Vox would gain 36. In terms of vote share, and taking the 2023 figures rounded to one decimal place, the changes would be −0.7 points for the Conservatives, −7 for the Socialists, and +7.4 for Vox. The comparison of Frente Amplio with the 31 seats of Sumar requires considering that Podemos is running now separately and that the composition of the candidate lists has changed.
The poll also asks about the continuity of Puente
In addition to the electoral estimate, DATA10 reports that 66.3% of those interviewed believed that Óscar Puente should be dismissed for the rail accidents, compared with 21.1% who defended his staying in office. Among Socialist voters, 40.3% supported his dismissal and 44.6% his remaining. Fieldwork was carried out on November 2 and 3, so it does not allow assessing the change after his resignation. It also does not allow attributing by itself to the Urda accident all of the electoral change compared with October.
See here the technical sheet and the full survey in OKDIARIO