The artificial intelligence company Anthropic could debut on the stock market without obtaining an investment-grade credit rating, a circumstance that would make its access to financing more expensive and complicate the ambitious technological expansion plans announced by the company. Blackstone, one of the main investors involved in its financing operations, has revised its initial forecasts and now considers it more likely that the laboratory led by Dario Amodei will receive a rating situated at the upper end of the junk-bond category.
According to Financial Times, which cites people familiar with the conversations, Blackstone has conveyed this new estimate to the investors participating in a $63 billion financing operation, called Project "North Star", intended to provide Anthropic with computing capacity through the leasing of Google semiconductors.
The change in expectations comes after Anthropic submitted this Monday the documentation for its stock market debut, an operation that could become the largest public offering in history and with which the company aspires to raise close to an additional $100 billion, according to investors' forecasts.
Invest 800,000 million in infrastructure
The credit rating takes on special importance because of the magnitude of the financial commitments that Anthropic intends to assume over the next two decades. In the documentation submitted for its stock market debut, the company contemplates investments of more than $800 billion in computer infrastructure through 2045, aimed at expanding the capacity needed to develop and operate its artificial intelligence models.
Although the company currently has more than $112 billion in cash and equivalent assets, its capital needs will likely force it to resort continuously to the debt markets.
An investment-grade rating would facilitate that process by allowing it to obtain loans with lower interest rates and attract a larger number of institutional investors. However, Blackstone's latest estimates point to Anthropic potentially receiving a BB rating or higher within the speculative segment, below the threshold required to access the financing conditions reserved for the most solvent issuers.
The difference is not only financial, but also in market access. Numerous pension funds and insurance companies have restrictions on investing in debt considered high-risk, which would reduce the number of potential buyers of Anthropic's bonds and increase its dependence on technology companies with better credit ratings.
Blackstone and Broadcom back a financing of 63 billion
The difficulties in obtaining a higher rating have been reflected in the structure of Project "North Star", an operation designed to finance the leasing of 1.5 gigawatts of processing capacity through Google chips.
The deal includes more than 42 billion dollars in senior loans backed by Broadcom, a semiconductor manufacturer that participates in the development of the chips and has a credit rating within the A category.
Another 18 billion correspond to subordinated debt, backed by the lease payments committed by Anthropic. This part of the financing entails greater risk for lenders, since their collection rights are behind those of senior creditors in the event of default.
Blackstone has committed approximately 9 billion dollars of its funds to this subordinated debt, in exchange for a return above 10%, according to the information published by the British financial newspaper.
Broadcom's participation has been decisive in attracting institutional financing, since its solvency makes it possible to support a substantial part of the loans without depending exclusively on Anthropic's ability to pay.
The rating agencies have still not officially rated Anthropic
The first evaluations of the debt linked to the project reflect analysts' reservations about the financial risk of the operation.
Kroll Bond Rating Agency (KBRA) has assigned a BB+ with positive outlook rating to the 18 billion dollars of subordinated debt, while Morningstar DBRS has awarded a BB rating, according to the sources cited by Financial Times.
KBRA's assessment slightly improves the stable outlook it had assigned four months earlier to a comparable operation, called Project "Big Sky". However, both ratings remain below investment grade.
For the moment, Fitch, Moody's and S&P, the three main international credit rating agencies, have not published an official note for Anthropic. Their future evaluations will be especially relevant in determining the cost at which the company will be able to finance its investments.
The issue also affects OpenAI, direct competitor of Anthropic, whose advisory banks have maintained contacts with the rating agencies to defend the possibility that the major artificial intelligence laboratories could achieve investment grade after their respective IPOs.