After the failure to construct a joint candidacy in that space known as 'to the left of the PSOE', disputes among progressive formations have not ceased. The latest rift ahead of the general elections on November 29 has opened in Teruel, after Chunta Aragonesista decided that the coalition CHA-Frente Amplio Aragón would not present a candidacy for Congress in that province, with the argument of avoiding the dispersion of the progressive vote. Izquierda Unida, however, refuses to give up running and maintains its commitment to offer its own candidacy.
The disagreement pits two priorities against each other that do not always fit: concentrating support to try to wrest parliamentary representation from PP and Vox or maintaining a differentiated electoral option for those who do not want to vote for the PSOE. The discussion goes beyond a specific constituency and puts on the table how a coalition that groups formations with territorial implantation, interests, and different strategies should be organized.
The tension has escalated since Chunta's announcement on Wednesday, October 21, until the confirmation from IU that it will run in Teruel without the Aragonese formation. The controversy also comes amid preparations for candidacies for the elections and while the PSOE denies that there is a negotiation with the Frente Amplio to withdraw lists for Congress in certain provinces.
Teruel faces two electoral strategies
The president of Chunta Aragonesista, Jorge Pueyo, justified the decision to refrain from competing for Congress in Teruel by the need to concentrate the coalition's efforts in Zaragoza and Huesca. The formation will indeed run for the Senate in the province of Teruel. Its argument is that, in a scenario of strong polarization, avoiding the fragmentation of progressive votes can help facilitate a left-wing majority.
The position of IU Aragón is the opposite. Its coordinator, Marta Abengochea, argues that citizens should be able to vote for a force situated to the left of the PSOE even in provinces with less population and representation. The organization maintains that it had its candidacies chosen since October 13 and believes that giving up running would leave part of the electorate without its own option.
The discrepancy is not limited to a tactical difference on how to obtain more seats. It also affects the relationship between the members of the coalition and the ability of each party to decide where to run. Chunta maintains that the coalition agreement assigns it the decision on the Aragonese constituencies; IU, for its part, insists that there must be a candidacy in Teruel and has received the backing of its federal leadership.
Recalculating
The recalculation of the results of the general elections of July 2023, prepared by El Independiente, allows identifying five constituencies where a joint candidacy of PSOE and Sumar would have modified the distribution of seats: Huesca, Cuenca, Guadalajara, Toledo, and Jaén. In Teruel, however, the sum of both formations would have fallen 234 votes short of the PP, without altering the distribution of deputies.
In Huesca and Cuenca, the joint candidacy would have taken one seat from the PP, which went from two deputies to one. In Guadalajara, the change would have harmed Vox, with a hypothetical distribution of two deputies for the joint candidacy and one for the PP. In Toledo, the PP would have lost one of its three seats, while in Jaén the additional deputy would have come at the expense of Vox.
These calculations keep the votes of the other candidacies constant and group the votes that PSOE and Sumar obtained separately. Therefore, it is a reconstruction of the results of 2023, not an estimate of what may happen on the next November 29. Furthermore, Sumar included Podemos at that time, a circumstance that prevents automatically attributing all those supports to the political space that will now run under different formulas.
The impact of a joint candidacy depends on the distribution of votes and the number of deputies elected by each province. In small constituencies, a relatively small difference can decide the last seat, but the sum of the results of two parties does not guarantee that the same electorate will again support a shared list.
Teruel illustrates that limit. In the 2023 elections, the PP obtained 26,586 votes; PSOE, 22,226, and Sumar, 4,126. The sum of these last two formations would have reached 26,352 votes, still 234 below the popular result. With the other votes unchanged, the joint candidacy would not have altered the distribution of two deputies for the PP and one for the left.
The role of Podemos in the upcoming elections
The comparison with 2023 has another limitation: Podemos was part of Sumar in those elections, while both organizations will run separately in numerous constituencies in the upcoming general elections. Therefore, the combined result from then cannot be directly transferred to the current map of candidacies.
The presence of Podemos adds a variable to the electoral strategy of the left. A candidacy that withdraws does not automatically transfer all its votes to the PSOE or to another force in the same ideological space. The capacity for concentration will depend on the preferences of the voters and the agreements that the organizations ultimately reach.
The dispute between IU and Chunta in Teruel is precisely at that point: to decide whether the priority should be to concentrate support to contest seats or to maintain a differentiated political offer. The deadline for submitting candidacies ends on Monday, October 26, so the formations must resolve their differences before closing the lists for November 29.