Germany faces this Sunday two new regional elections just two weeks after the political turnaround caused by Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Saxony-Anhalt. Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania will renew their parliaments in two events that will measure the evolution of support for AfD and the moment that the CDU of Chancellor Friedrich Merz is going through.
The immediate precedent explains a good part of the event. On September 6, AfD obtained nearly 44% of the votes in Saxony-Anhalt, compared to 17% for the CDU. The party secured 39 of the 83 seats in the Landtag and was three seats away from an absolute majority, after more than doubling the almost 21% achieved five years earlier.
The result represented a severe drop for the CDU in a state it had governed since 2002. Two weeks later, the focus shifts to Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, which shares with Saxony-Anhalt its status as a territory of eastern Germany and a strong presence of the far-right party. Berlin, on the other hand, presents a much more urban electorate and a more fragmented competition. In the German capital, if all forecasts hold, the left will achieve victory at the polls.
Two regional elections on the same Sunday
Both elections have a nature similar to those recently held in Saxony-Anhalt.
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania will elect its Landtag, the regional parliament of the federal state. Berlin will renew the Abgeordnetenhaus or House of Representatives, which performs that same function because the German capital is simultaneously a city and one of the 16 federal states of the country. Additionally, Berliners will elect the assemblies of their twelve districts.
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However, the German capital has a peculiarity. Its head of government holds the title of governor mayor because it concentrates the functions of both the city mayor and the president of a federal state.
He is not directly elected by the citizens, but by the House of Representatives that emerges from the polls.
AfD arrives boosted by its 44% in Saxony-Anhalt
The event on Sunday will inevitably be conditioned by what happened two weeks earlier.
AfD went from 20.8% in 2021 to 43.8% in 2026 in Saxony-Anhalt, while the CDU suffered the opposite movement and fell from 37.1% to 17.2%. The party of Ulrich Siegmund came close to controlling the Landtag on its own, although it did not reach an absolute majority.
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The magnitude of the result has increased the pressure on Merz. The upcoming elections do not decide his institutional continuity as chancellor, but they come at a time of weakening of the CDU and deterioration of the valuation of the federal government, so the results will again be read in a national key.
Merz himself has rejected linking his political future to the regional elections and has stated that he intends to complete his term.
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the next opportunity for AfD
The scenario most similar to that of Saxony-Anhalt is found in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, a state in northeastern Germany that was part of the former German Democratic Republic (GDR).
There, the social democrat Manuela Schwesig has been governing since 2017, currently leading a coalition between the SPD and Die Linke, the party to the left of the social democrats.
The polls reflect a close competition, although with differences between surveys. The news agency Reuters reported this week an estimate placing AfD at 37% and SPD at 35%, while a subsequent survey by Infratest dimap raised the party to a 38% compared to 33% for the social democrats.
For the CDU, the scenario is adverse. Recent polls place Merz's party at just 7%, close to an electoral barrier of 5% that determines entry into the regional Parliament.
However, AfD's electoral strength does not imply that it can govern. The other forces have so far maintained their rejection of an agreement with the party, so the parliamentary arithmetic after the elections will be as important as determining which formation comes in first position.
Schwesig against AfD
The figure of Schwesig introduces an important personal component into the election. The social democrat leader has been governing the state for nine years and maintains personal approval levels higher than those of her own party.
AfD faces the campaign with Enrico Schult as the number one on its regional list and Leif-Erik Holm, co-chairman of the party in the Land, as candidate for minister-president.
The regional campaign has incorporated national issues such as immigration and the relationship with Russia, but also concerns directly linked to the territory such as the price of fuel, the lack of healthcare professionals, and the economic stagnation.
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The state also has distinct characteristics from the large industrial regions of the west, including lower population density, vast rural areas, and demographic problems that condition issues such as access to public services.
Berlin fights another battle: housing and rents
The Berlin framework circulates through other channels. There, AfD also aims to grow, but the polls depict a much more fragmented competition.
The polls place Die Linke at 22%, the CDU at 20%, and AfD at 18%, followed by the Greens, with 15%, and the SPD, with 12%.
The Berlin campaign is mainly marked by housing. In a city where eight out of ten inhabitants live in rented accommodation, the rising rents and the difficulty in finding housing have become central to the political discussion. Rents have increased significantly in recent years in a city that will need around 211,000 additional homes by 2040.
It is precisely in this area where Elif Eralp, candidate of Die Linke, has tried to focus her campaign against the CDU's attempts to shift the debate to other issues.
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Eralp, daughter of Turkish political refugees, leads a candidacy that arrives at the elections contesting the top positions in the polls. Her personal trajectory has also taken space in the campaign. Her parents, socialists and trade unionists, fled Turkey after the military coup and arrived in Germany when her mother was eight months pregnant. The candidate has also linked her political activity to the defense of migrant rights and activism against the far right.
The possibility that Die Linke becomes the leading force would represent a significant change in the capital's politics, although the result of the polls does not determine who will govern Berlin. The election of the mayor-governor will subsequently depend on the majorities that can be articulated in the House of Representatives. Eralp shares the competition for the head of the regional government with Stefan Evers (CDU), Steffen Krach (SPD), Werner Graf (Los Verdes), and Kristin Brinker (AfD), among other candidates.
The differences between the parties are especially visible in housing. Die Linke proposes to strengthen the control of rents and social housing, while AfD links part of the housing pressure to immigration. Another of the debates focuses on Tempelhofer Feld, the former airport turned into a huge public space, where CDU, FDP, and AfD advocate for allowing limited construction while SPD, Greens, and Die Linke oppose.
The CDU is also playing for the Government of Berlin
The election also has a direct consequence for the regional power of the CDU. The party currently governs Berlin in coalition with the SPD, but polls show a much more open competition than in previous elections.
Among the main candidates are Stefan Evers for the CDU, Steffen Krach for the SPD, Elif Eralp for Die Linke, and Werner Graf for the Greens.
Once the results are known, a negotiation is expected to begin to build a majority in the Chamber.
The counting will begin at 6:00 PM this Sunday. Berlin has 2,542 polling stations and 1,572 mail-in voting tables and the electoral authorities expect to announce the provisional result around 1:30 AM next Monday.