The Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, would have received a direct warning about the intentions of the Hamas leader, Yahya Sinwar, approximately ten days before the attacks on October 7, 2023, but did not pass the information to the main security officials of Israel.
This is asserted by a investigation published this Tuesday by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, according to which the President of the United Arab Emirates, Mohamed bin Zayed, personally warned Netanyahu that Sinwar was preparing a large-scale operation.
The office of the Israeli Prime Minister has categorically rejected the information and even denies that the conversation took place. “An absolute lie! Prime Minister Netanyahu did not speak with the President of the United Arab Emirates during the mentioned period and did not receive any warning from him,” he responded.
The revelation is part of the investigation conducted by journalists Shlomi Eldar and Ruth Yuval for the book Hostages: 843 Days of Abandonment —Rehenes: 843 días de abandono—, focused on the political and security failures surrounding the attacks of October 7 and the subsequent management of the hostages.
A 45-minute call ten days before the attack
According to the reconstruction by Haaretz, Bin Zayed held a phone conversation of approximately 45 minutes with Netanyahu at the end of September 2023.
During the call, the Emirati president would have warned that Sinwar was preparing a “big move” against Israel that could provoke bloodshed, destabilize the region, and endanger the Abraham Accords, through which Israel and the United Arab Emirates normalized their relations in 2020.
Bin Zayed would have recommended to Netanyahu to prepare for the threat and take measures to reduce tension both in the Gaza Strip and in the West Bank.
The Israeli Prime Minister would have responded that, according to his analysis, Hamas was preparing an escalation focused on the West Bank and that Israel was prepared to face any scenario.
The investigation does not claim that the Emirati leader knew the date or specific details of the attack, but rather that he transmitted an explicit warning about the preparation of a large-scale operation by Sinwar.
Netanyahu would not have informed the security officials
The most relevant accusation of the investigation is that Netanyahu did not communicate the content of the conversation to the then Minister of Defense, Yoav Gallant; to the Chief of Staff of the Army, Herzi Halevi; to the director of the Shin Bet, Ronen Bar, nor to the head of the Mossad, David Barnea.
Halevi and Bar have confirmed to the authors that they were not informed about a warning from the President of the United Arab Emirates.
Netanyahu's office completely rejects this account. His version not only questions the content or interpretation of the conversation but denies that it ever took place.
For the moment, the United Arab Emirates has not publicly confirmed the call. Nor have phone records, recordings, or official documents been released that would allow for independent verification of the core of the revelation.
Sinwar would have announced that he was preparing a “earthquake”
The warning attributed to Bin Zayed would have originated from a secret channel of contacts that existed during 2023 between Israel and Hamas to negotiate a long-term truce, economic measures for Gaza, and a possible agreement on the Israelis held in the Strip.
According to the investigation, Sinwar interrupted those conversations at the beginning of September and subsequently communicated to a Palestinian mediator that he was preparing a “huge surprise” for Israel. He also used the Arabic word “zilzal,” which means “earthquake.”
The mediator conveyed the message to a Palestinian advisor close to the Emirati president. After holding a new meeting with Sinwar and hearing references to a large-scale operation, the intermediaries would have concluded that it was not merely a threat intended to pressure the negotiations.
Bin Zayed would have then decided to contact Netanyahu directly.
The Shin Bet also received indications about Hamas's plans
The same message about the “earthquake” that Sinwar was preparing would have reached the Shin Bet on September 15, 2023. Ronen Bar requested to speak with Netanyahu, and two days later several meetings began with security officials.
However, the Israeli services did not determine what exactly Hamas intended to do. One of the hypotheses examined was that the message was related to Elizabeth Tsurkov, the Russian-Israeli researcher kidnapped in Iraq by a Shiite militia in March 2023.
The investigation indicates that Bar warned that Israel was on a trajectory of confrontation and recommended considering an offensive action or significantly reinforcing the defense in Gaza and the West Bank. The meetings concluded without relevant operational decisions.
On October 1, six days before the attack, another meeting was held regarding the situation in Gaza. Bar would have raised the consideration of eliminating several Hamas leaders, including Sinwar. Netanyahu requested to prepare plans but ordered to lower the tension for the moment.
In that meeting, the supposed conversation with Bin Zayed would not have been mentioned either.
A second warning from Egypt
Haaretz also maintains that Netanyahu's office received during those days a warning from the then head of Egyptian intelligence, Abbas Kamel, about “something unusual” and a possible large operation by Hamas.
From the prime minister's environment, they would have responded that Israel kept the situation in Gaza under control and that it was concentrating its attention and forces in the West Bank.
The existence of a prior Egyptian warning before October 7 has been the subject of contradictory versions since the first days following the attacks. Netanyahu has repeatedly denied having received an operational warning from Egypt.
A revelation that increases pressure on Netanyahu
The information questions the defense maintained by Netanyahu since the attacks of October 7. The prime minister has attributed much of the failure to the military and intelligence commanders and claims that he did not receive an operational warning about the Hamas attack.
If the conversation with Bin Zayed were confirmed, the investigation would require determining why Netanyahu did not share the warning with the security officials and whether that information would have changed the Israeli assessment of Sinwar's intentions.
The former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot has reacted by accusing the prime minister of having led Israel “blindly” towards the disaster of October 7. The families of the victims and different sectors of the opposition have again demanded an independent state commission of inquiry to determine the political, military, and intelligence responsibilities.
The revelation continues, however, supported by the investigation of Haaretz and the sources used for the new book. In front of it is the absolute denial from Netanyahu's office and the absence, until now, of a public confirmation from the Emirati government.