Roberto Vannacci has ceased to be a marginal figure within the Italian right to become an actor capable of altering the political balances of the country. The retired general, 57 years old, burst onto the public stage in 2023 with the book The World Upside Down and was subsequently recruited by the League for the 2024 European elections. In February of this year, he broke with Matteo Salvini's formation and created his own party, National Future (FN), to which eight deputies from parties that are part of the Government have already joined.
His growth is beginning to worry the coalition of Giorgia Meloni. The polls cited in the information place National Future between 8% and 12% of the votes, compared to 4.4% for the League and 7.1% for Forza Italia. If those percentages are confirmed, Vannacci could become the second force in the Italian right space, only behind Brothers of Italy.
Vannacci's "Mediterranean Patriarchy"
National Future held its first congress in June and in recent weeks has presented a broad political program. One of its central concepts is what Vannacci calls "Mediterranean patriarchy", a model that, according to his own words, seeks to form "strong men" capable of dominating their emotions and protecting women.
The document includes numerous proposals that have generated controversy. Among them is restricting the presence of LGTBI people on television between six in the morning and eleven at night, eliminating the crime of femicide and civil unions, and ceasing to consider abortion as a right. It also proposes that each child allows their parents to have additional ballots in elections and lowering the age of criminal responsibility for minors from 14 to 12 years.
His program also advocates for a greater presence of the Armed Forces in everyday life. Vannacci proposes introducing military education in schools, courses on defense and national security in higher education, and camps aimed at attracting young people to the Army.
A radical tightening of migration policy
Immigration also occupies a central position. Futuro Nacional proposes a program of "remigration" of 22 points that contemplates the expulsion of foreigners when their work contract ends and the elimination of access to certain social aids. The party also wants medical examinations of immigrants to be carried out by military doctors.
To obtain Italian citizenship, Vannacci proposes requiring 20 years of residence, passing an Italian exam, and signing a declaration of "assimilation" to Greek, Roman, and Christian tradition. Furthermore, he proposes giving preference in entry permits to citizens from predominantly Christian countries.
The program uses openly identity-based rhetoric and presents Futuro Nacional as a right linked to Roman and Christian tradition, family, security, and merit. Vannacci himself has also resorted to references and symbols related to Italy's fascist past, although in some cases he has rejected that interpretation.
From the League to directly competing with Salvini
Vannacci's evolution is particularly uncomfortable for Matteo Salvini. The League incorporated him as a candidate in the 2024 European elections thinking that he could leverage his popularity, but the former general managed to obtain 555,980 votes on his own in an open-list system. Now his new formation directly threatens the electoral space of what was his party.
Salvini and Meloni have hardened part of their discourse on security and immigration in recent months, but Vannacci has the advantage of being in the opposition and can carry his messages much further without having government responsibilities.
His rise thus poses a difficult decision for Meloni: fighting him may force her to distance herself from a part of her own more radical electorate, while incorporating him into a future coalition would mean accepting a potentially difficult partner to control.
The electoral reform comes into play
The emergence of Futuro Nacional also alters the calculations for the upcoming Italian general elections, initially scheduled for 2027. Meloni had already been working on a modification of the electoral system, but Vannacci's growth has added a new variable.
One of the formulas being studied would be to establish a double shift between the two most voted coalitions. That design could leave Futuro Nacional out of a possible second round and facilitate its voters ending up supporting the coalition led by Meloni. However, there is also the risk that Vannacci concentrates even more protest votes during the first round and weakens the government bloc.
Russia and two judicial investigations
The former general has also generated controversy for his international positions. He was the military attaché at the Italian Embassy in Moscow between 2020 and 2022, rejects the sending of weapons to Ukraine, and advocates for restoring relations with Vladimir Putin. The Financial Times has defined him as "the Trojan horse of Russia in Italy," according to the information.
At the same time, a military union has filed two complaints against Futuro Nacional. A Prosecutor's Office in Rome is studying a possible crime of reconstitution of the fascist party, while the military jurisdiction analyzes the presence of active Army members among the leaders of the formation. FN's lawyers deny that there is any criminal incompatibility and argue that, in any case, it could be a disciplinary issue.
Vannacci, meanwhile, tries to present himself as a politician outside the system and exploits social media intensely, even through videos made with artificial intelligence. That strategy, combined with a more radical discourse than that of the forces currently in government, has made him one of the main factors of uncertainty for the Italian right looking towards 2027.