The PSC would be positioned as the first force in a general election in Catalonia, with an estimate of between 18 and 19 deputies, ahead of ERC, which would achieve between 10 and 11 seats, while the PP would be in third position with a range of 6 to 7 representatives, according to the latest barometer from the Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió (CEO) of the Generalitat.
These results come from the second wave of the Political Opinion Barometer of 2026, conducted between September 1 and October 5 with a sample of 2,000 people over 18 years old. The data was made public this Thursday by the director of the CEO, Joan Rodríguez Teruel.
Behind the PP, Vox would be positioned as the fourth force, with between 5 and 6 seats, followed by Junts, which would obtain between 4 and 5 deputies. Sumar would move in a range of 2 to 3 seats and the CUP would be between 0 and 1 representative. Podemos would not achieve any deputies, according to this projection, made before the electoral agreements and before the CUP decided not to run in the elections.
Comparison with the results of 2023
If these forecasts were confirmed, the PSC would impose itself again in Catalonia, maintaining the 19 seats achieved in the general elections of 2023. ERC, for its part, would experience an advance of between 3 and 4 deputies, going from the 7 it obtained then to a range of 10-11.
In the case of Sumar, which in 2023 obtained 7 deputies for Catalonia, the survey points to a decline to 2-3 seats. Junts would also see its representation reduced, going from 7 to between 4 and 5 deputies. The PP would remain at similar levels, moving between 6 and 7 seats, compared to the 6 it obtained in 2023.
Vox would be one of the parties that would grow the most, increasing from the 2 deputies of 2023 to the 5-6 attributed to it by this CEO barometer.
Evaluation of the leaders
The barometer from the Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió (CEO) of the Generalitat also evaluates the Catalan political leaders. In this sense, Oriol Junqueras (ERC) is the only Catalan leader who passes, while Gabriel Rufián (ERC) stands out as the best-rated leader
Junqueras reaches a passing score of 5.0, ahead of Salvador Illa (4.9), Jéssica Albiach (4.4), Sílvia Orriols (4.0), and Carles Puigdemont (3.7). Junqueras also consolidates as the second option to preside over the Generalitat (16% of the citizenry) behind the current president, Salvador Illa (20%), and ahead of Orriols (13%) and Puigdemont (11%).
As we have pointed out, Gabriel Rufián is the best-rated leader among those analyzed by the CEO, with a score of 5.8 out of 10 and a 69% approval rating, two points more than he obtained in July.