The weather today in Spain: temperatures plummet and storms gain ground

In the Spanish legal system, there is no single legal article that lists, phenomenon by phenomenon, when an orange or red warning from AEMET must be activated. What exists is a legal framework that grants AEMET the competence to issue warnings of adverse phenomena and requires that these warnings be based on previously defined thresholds and technical protocols coordinated with Civil Protection.

1. Basic legal framework

The normative pillars are essentially:

• Royal Decree 186/2008, of February 8, which approves the Statute of the State Meteorological Agency. It defines AEMET as the body responsible for the preparation, supply, and dissemination of meteorological information and forecasts of general interest and, especially, for the issuance of warnings of meteorological phenomena that may affect the safety of people and property.
• Law 17/2015, of July 9, on the National Civil Protection System, which configures risks from adverse meteorological phenomena as part of civil protection risks and requires early warning systems based on specialized bodies such as AEMET.
• Civil protection plans and guidelines (for example, the State Civil Protection Plan against Flood Risk, approved by Agreement of the Council of Ministers of July 29, 2011, published by Resolution of August 2, 2011). This plan:
  • Embodies AEMET as a provider of prediction and monitoring of relevant meteorological phenomena for floods.
  • Requires establishing thresholds, communication procedures, and advance times for warnings, as well as a Special Protocol for Prediction and Monitoring subject to the opinion of the National Civil Protection Commission before its approval by AEMET.

Similar rules and plans (state plans for other risks, Basic Civil Protection Standard, and National Civil Protection Strategy) articulate the same logic for other extreme phenomena (wind, waves, snow, extreme temperatures, etc.).

2. What the warning levels legally mean

The colors yellow, orange, and red do not appear as such in a law, but derive from AEMET's general obligation to warn of phenomena that may pose a risk to the population. In practice:

• The yellow level is reserved for potentially dangerous phenomena but generally with low expected impact.
• The orange level is used when dangerous phenomena are forecast, with a significant probability of damage and important disruptions in daily life.
• The red level is reserved for extreme risk situations, with a high probability of very significant damage and serious threat to the physical integrity of people.

This level scheme is part of AEMET's internal operational protocols (such as the well-known “Meteoalerta” system), which rely on the previous regulations and are coordinated with Civil Protection, but are not usually detailed in the Official State Gazette (BOE).

3. Material requirements: thresholds and territorial scope

From a legal-technical point of view, to issue an orange or red warning, these requirements must concur, in summary:

• Existence of an adverse meteorological phenomenon (intense rain, very strong wind gusts, maritime storm, snow, extreme temperatures, severe storms, etc.) likely to affect the safety of people and property, according to AEMET's Statute and Law 17/2015.
• Expected exceedance of predefined thresholds of intensity, duration, and/or geographical extent of the phenomenon. These thresholds:
  • Are set by AEMET in its technical guides and protocols (for example, guides on “Adverse Meteorological Phenomena”) and are periodically reviewed.
  • Are adapted to each type of phenomenon and area (the rainfall threshold is not the same for usually wet areas as for very dry areas).
• Delimitation of the territorial scope: warnings are issued for official forecast zones (provinces, counties, maritime areas, etc.) defined by AEMET, consistent with Civil Protection planning.
• Risk assessment as a combination of probability that the threshold will be reached and magnitude of possible damage. The elevation from yellow to orange or red responds to this evaluation, within the framework of internally established criteria.

4. Procedure and coordination

Finally, civil protection plans require that the issuance of warnings:

• Be integrated into hydrometeorological information and monitoring systems shared with Civil Protection and other administrations.
• Follow agreed communication procedures (channels, recipients, advance times, updating and cancellation of warnings).
• Be supported by protocols such as the mentioned Special Protocol for Prediction and Monitoring of Meteorological Phenomena, which must be reported by the National Civil Protection Commission before its approval.

In summary, AEMET's orange and red warnings do not depend on a single provision but on a set of civil protection regulations and the Agency's Statute, plus the technical guides approved by it, which legally translate the obligation to protect the population against adverse meteorological phenomena.

In Spanish legislation, the competencies of the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) regarding weather alerts are fundamentally supported by its Statute approved by Royal Decree 186/2008, of February 8, and by Law 17/2015, of July 9, on the National Civil Protection System. Based on these norms, it can be said that AEMET acts as the National Meteorological Service and State meteorological authority, a key player in monitoring, forecasting, and communicating adverse phenomena to Civil Protection and the general public.

1. Meteorological monitoring and forecasting

AEMET's Statute defines the agency's purpose as “the development, implementation, and provision of meteorological services under the State's competence,” contributing to the safety of people and property and to the “well-being and sustainable development of Spanish society.”

Specifically, the article on functions establishes, among others:

• Preparation, supply, and dissemination of meteorological information and forecasts of general interest for citizens nationwide, “and the issuance of warnings and forecasts of meteorological phenomena that may affect the safety of people and material goods.”
• The maintenance of continuous, effective, and sustainable monitoring of meteorological and climatic conditions and of the atmosphere's structure and composition over the national territory.
• The establishment, development, and maintenance of observation networks and technical infrastructures necessary for such monitoring and forecasting.

Legally, this positions AEMET as the public service responsible for the observation, analysis, modeling, and forecasting of weather and climate, an essential technical basis for any meteorological alert and civil protection system.

2. Issuance and dissemination of warnings and alerts

The same Statute expressly grants AEMET the competence for the “issuance of warnings” of dangerous meteorological phenomena. It not only produces forecasts but also qualifies the danger of certain episodes (intense rain, winds, heat waves, snowfalls, maritime storms, etc.) and issues the corresponding warnings.

Additionally, it is entrusted with the “preparation, supply, and dissemination” of this information. That is, it is not limited to generating technical data but has a normative mandate to actively disseminate it to:

• The general public (information of general interest throughout the territory).
• Public institutions competent in civil protection, defense, and state security, which must be prioritized.
• Other public and private users, through value-added or specific services.

3. Coordination with Civil Protection and other authorities

Law 17/2015, on the National Civil Protection System, creates the National Civil Protection Alert Network as a system for communicating emergency warnings to competent authorities, managed by the Ministry of the Interior through the National Center for Emergency Monitoring and Coordination of Civil Protection.

This law stipulates that “all public administration bodies that can contribute to the detection, monitoring, and forecasting of imminent danger threats” must immediately communicate to this Center any situation that may lead to a civil protection emergency. AEMET, as the National Meteorological Service and meteorological authority, fits directly into this category and, therefore, is obliged to:

• Transmit its warnings and forecasts of adverse meteorological phenomena to the civil protection system, for integration into the National Alert Network.
• Cooperate with emergency coordination bodies of autonomous communities, whose special plans consider the risk of adverse meteorological phenomena and rely on AEMET's information.

Furthermore, the Statute foresees AEMET's collaboration with autonomous communities and local entities through agreements, which allows operational articulation of this coordination in the management of warnings and emergency plans.

4. Information to the public and media

AEMET's Statute includes among its functions the exercise of “training, documentation, and communication” activities in meteorological and climatological matters. Combined with the principle of transparency and citizen participation, this translates into an obligation to:

• Make relevant meteorological information and adverse phenomena warnings available to the public through accessible means (web, official channels, etc.).
• Maintain active communication with users and media, explaining the scope of alerts and facilitating risk understanding.

In summary, the legislation configures AEMET as the technical reference and public meteorological authority responsible for monitoring the weather, forecasting adverse phenomena, issuing and disseminating warnings, and cooperating with Civil Protection and other authorities so that these warnings are integrated into emergency plans and devices and reach the population clearly and timely.

In the latest Catalonia regional elections, held on May 12, 2024, the Parliament was configured with eight political forces and a clear victory for the PSC, although without an absolute majority. The resulting chamber reflects a very fragmented political map and, for the first time since 1980, without a majority of seats from the nationalist or pro-independence bloc.

Results of the main parties

According to the official note from the Generalitat on the results of the Catalonia Parliament elections of May 12 and the subsequent analysis collected by the newspaper Demócrata in this report, the seat distribution was as follows:

• PSC (Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya): 42 seats. It was the most voted force, with 27.94% of the votes. This represents a historic victory for the Catalan socialists, consolidating a clearly majority group within the chamber, although still far from the absolute majority (68).
• Junts: 35 seats. It remains the main reference of center-right pro-independence and the second force in the Parliament. With 21.64% of the votes, it is the party around which the presidency of the Parliament has been articulated in this legislature.
• ERC (Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya): 20 seats. It loses weight compared to the previous cycle and remains the third force, with 13.68% of the votes. Nevertheless, it continues to be an essential actor both in the pro-independence bloc and in any attempt at a progressive majority.
• PP (Partido Popular): 15 seats. It protagonizes one of the great rises of the night, multiplying its results by five compared to the previous regional elections (from 3 to 15 deputies) and nearing 11% of the vote. It becomes the fourth force in the Parliament.
• Vox: 11 seats. It maintains the same number of deputies as in 2021, consolidating its presence in Catalonia as a radical right force.
• Comuns Sumar: 6 seats. The common space retains a modest but decisive representation in the left bloc.
• CUP: 4 seats. The anti-capitalist pro-independence left suffers a setback and remains with a small group, although relevant for the pro-sovereignty arithmetic.
• Aliança Catalana: 2 seats. It is the novelty of the legislature: an extreme right pro-independence formation that enters the Parliament for the first time with two deputies, the result of very concentrated results in Girona and Lleida.

In total, the chamber maintains the usual size of 135 deputies. Participation reached 57.97%, with almost 99% counted, more than six points above the 2021 regional elections.

Political composition of the Parliament

The XIV legislature of the Parliament of Catalonia is characterized by:

• Clear but not hegemonic victory of the PSC, which with 42 seats leads the non-pro-independence bloc and opens the door to different government combinations, all based on pacts.
• A more fragmented and weakened pro-independence bloc: Junts (35), ERC (20), CUP (4), and Aliança Catalana (2) add up to 61 seats, below the absolute majority and also below the non-sovereigntist bloc if PSC, PP, Vox, and Comuns are grouped.
• Strengthening of the state right: the PP makes a substantial leap to 15 seats and stands ahead of Vox (11), configuring a much stronger Spanish right-wing space than in previous legislatures.
• Persistence of the left: besides PSC and ERC, both Comuns Sumar (6) and CUP (4) maintain their own voice in the chamber, multiplying possible combinations for progressive and plurinational majorities.

Demócrata's own analysis of the legislature's start highlights that, despite the fact that for the first time since 1980 the Parliament does not have a majority of nationalist or pro-independence representatives, the chamber's Board is controlled by a pro-independence majority, resulting from the agreement between Junts, ERC, and CUP. This well illustrates the legislature's complexity: the distribution of institutional power does not automatically coincide with the overall seat balance.

In summary, the latest Catalan elections left a very plural Parliament: a clearly winning socialist first force, a pro-independence movement divided into several parties, the emergence of a new pro-independence far-right, and a strengthened state right. All this requires articulating cross-cutting agreements for the investiture and approval of the legislature's main laws.