The hurricane Isaías has forced the suspension of 62.89% of the daily oil production and 57.35% of the natural gas from the Gulf of Mexico, according to estimates from the United States Marine Minerals Administration. Energy companies have evacuated workers from offshore platforms and halted operations preventively ahead of the phenomenon's arrival on the U.S. coast.
Official data, compiled from reports by operating companies, amounts to nearly 1.28 million barrels per day of suspended oil production. The interruption is temporary while the facilities remain exposed to meteorological risk, although those that suffer damage may take longer to resume their activity.
The episode comes at a time of tension in energy markets due to the war with Iran. The coincidence of both factors increases attention on the evolution of supply, although it still does not allow for determining how long the interruption will last or what effect it will have on international prices.
The impact also reaches refineries
The threat is not limited to extraction platforms. The U.S. Gulf coast concentrates more than half of the country's oil refining capacity, so the effects of the hurricane may extend to crude processing and the production of gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel.
Analyst Andrew Lipow, president of the consulting firm Lipow Oil, estimates that the phenomenon may affect 14% of the refining capacity of the United States, about 2.7 million barrels per day. The reduction in activity could pressure gasoline and diesel reserves that were already tight.
The final dimension of this impact will depend on the hurricane's trajectory and the decisions made by companies regarding their facilities. Preventive interruptions do not necessarily equate to permanent damage: once the storm has passed, facilities that pass safety inspections will be able to resume production.
The evolution of crude depends on how long the interruption lasts
Oil had already been registering sharp movements due to geopolitical uncertainty. On Thursday, the Brent barrel rose nearly 5% at the beginning of the session after reports emerged about the possibility of new U.S. attacks against Iran.
The suspension of production in the Gulf of Mexico adds a supply factor to that situation. However, to determine its effect on the market, it will be necessary to check how much crude oil effectively stops arriving at the refineries, if there are damages to the facilities, and when the wells can resume operation.
The price of fuels in Spain does not depend exclusively on this episode: the international quotation of refined products, the exchange rate, distribution costs, and taxation also intervene. Therefore, the U.S. interruption constitutes a factor that is worth following, but it does not allow for anticipating a specific increase at Spanish gas stations on its own.