The former spokesperson of the Moroccan Government Mustapha El Khalfi has introduced a new element in the debate about the migratory crisis in Ceuta. The former Minister of Communication between 2012 and 2019 has publicly linked the massive entry recorded on July 30 with the processing in Spain of a bill to grant Spanish nationality to Sahrawis born before 1977.
In an interview granted to Moroccan television, El Khalfi considers that both events represent "an important strategic turning point" in the relations between Spain and Morocco. His approach does not coincide with the official position expressed by the Spanish Government, which has rejected that the parliamentary initiative on the Sahara explains what happened in Ceuta.
El Khalfi points to two factors behind what happened in Ceuta
The former Moroccan minister places a first element in the interpretation made on social networks of a Supreme Court ruling from June 29 related to the returns of people who reach Spanish territory by sea.
According to his version, that ruling was used by human trafficking networks and by anonymous profiles on social media to spread messages encouraging crossing to Ceuta. El Khalfi also argues that the tools of Artificial Intelligence currently facilitate the mass creation of fake profiles intended to amplify this type of messages.
But the former spokesperson adds a second political factor: the bill on the nationality of Sahrawis.
El Khalfi maintains that the admission for processing of this initiative on July 23 took place on "fertile ground" previously existing in Morocco and could contribute, according to his interpretation, to the scenario that led to the massive crossings at the end of the month.
The nationality of Sahrawis, the new focus of tension
The bill was promoted by Sumar and seeks to facilitate access to Spanish nationality for people born in Western Sahara when the territory was administered by Spain.
El Khalfi estimates that it could initially benefit about 8,000 people born before 1977, although he raises the potential figure to 200,000 if the right also extends to certain descendants. These amounts are estimates expressed by the former Moroccan minister himself and not an official calculation from the Spanish Government.
For Rabat, the issue is particularly sensitive due to the Western Sahara conflict. Morocco considers the territory part of its sovereignty, while the Polisario Front advocates for the holding of a self-determination process.
The fear expressed by El Khalfi is that the granting of Spanish citizenship will allow for the consolidation of a Sahrawi community both inside and outside of Spain with the capacity to politically defend positions contrary to those of Morocco.
"A new focal point of support for separatism" in Spain
The former minister expresses his concern in strategic terms. "When we studied International Relations, we were told that when a problem is resolved, another is often created," he states.
According to his reasoning, Spain may have modified its position on the Sahara by moving closer to Moroccan theses since 2022 and, at the same time, generate through this legislative initiative "a new focal point of support for separatism".
"This is a difficult and potentially serious development," asserts El Khalfi, who believes that both what happened in Ceuta and the issue of Spanish nationality for Sahrawis constitute "two very important and potentially dangerous events" for relations between Madrid and Rabat.
The former minister belongs to the Party of Justice and Development (PJD), an Islamist party that governed Morocco for much of the past decade and which moved to the opposition after its heavy electoral defeat in 2021. His words, therefore, do not equate to an official statement from the current Moroccan Government.
Albares rejects that the nationality law explains the crisis
The interpretation of the former Moroccan spokesperson directly clashes with that defended by the Spanish Minister of Foreign Affairs, José Manuel Albares.
During his appearance on Friday in Congress, Albares denied that the Ceuta crisis was related to Rabat's discontent over the nationality of Sahrawis, with Spain's rapprochement to Algeria, or with the dispute over where the World Cup final should be held.
"None of those issues have anything to do with what happened in Ceuta," the minister assured.
Albares also defended that the granting of nationality is a sovereign decision of the Cortes Generales and emphasized that Spain has the right to maintain good relations with both Morocco and Algeria.
The Government points to social networks and misinformation
The thesis defended by Foreign Affairs focuses fundamentally on the campaigns developed through social networks.
Albares has spoken of a possible "cognitive war" and has cited the dissemination of falsehoods, anonymous profiles, and messages amplified from different platforms as elements that contributed to mobilizing tens of thousands of people towards the border.
At the same time, the minister has defended the current collaboration with Morocco and has assured that he maintains almost daily contact with his Moroccan counterpart, Nasser Bourita, with two priority objectives: to facilitate the return of those who remain irregularly in Ceuta and to prevent a situation like that of July 30 from occurring again.
The statements of El Khalfi thus open a new interpretation about the origin of the crisis. While the Spanish Government denies that there is a political connection between the initiative regarding the Sahrawis and the events in Ceuta, a relevant figure from the previous Moroccan Executive does publicly establish that link, at a particularly delicate moment for relations between both countries.