The weather this weekend in Spain will be marked by storms and lower temperatures than usual for the end of August. The change that began on Thursday is consolidating with the entry of a fresher polar air mass and the arrival of a new trough that will increase instability, especially in the northeastern peninsula.
The State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) forecasts showers and storms that can be locally strong or very strong, with special attention to Catalonia, Aragon, the Valencian Community, and the Balearic Islands. Intense precipitation may cause local flooding in low-lying areas, valleys, and gullies.
A Friday of strong storms in the Balearic Islands and Catalonia
The episode begins before the weekend. During the early hours of this Friday the 21st, AEMET considers strong or very strong storms in the Balearic Islands, especially in Mallorca and Menorca.
The storms may leave very strong and occasionally hurricane-force wind gusts in the archipelago. Throughout the day, the situation will tend to lose intensity there, although locally strong showers and storms may still occur.
The other focus will be in the northeastern peninsula. AEMET expects precipitation in this area and considers that it may reach very strong intensity and persistent character on the southern coast of Catalonia during the second half of Friday.
Precipitation will also persist in the Cantabrian region, although it will lose intensity.
The weather on Saturday, August 22: storms continue in the northeast
Instability will not disappear with the arrival of Saturday. The most likely scenario maintains precipitation in the northeastern third of the Peninsula.
Showers and storms may be locally strong in southern Catalonia, eastern Aragon, northern Valencia, and the central Pyrenees. On the southern Catalan coast, they may still have a very strong and persistent character during the early hours of the day.
The distribution of rainfall will not be uniform. Much of the rest of Spain will have a more stable situation, while the risk of intense precipitation will mainly concentrate in the northeast.
AEMET warns, however, that there is uncertainty about the exact location of the highest accumulations, so the forecast may change as the episode progresses.
Where might it rain more heavily on Saturday?
The areas that should pay more attention during Saturday are:
- South of Catalonia: locally strong storms, with the possibility of very strong and persistent episodes during the early morning.
- East of Aragon: possibility of showers and strong storms.
- North of the Valencian Community: risk of locally intense precipitation.
- Central Pyrenees: possibility of strong storms.
- Balearic Islands: instability will continue, although the most adverse scenario is initially concentrated on Friday.
Intense precipitation in a short time can generate local floods, especially in low areas, valleys, and streambeds. AEMET recommends following the evolution of its warnings due to the uncertainty associated with this type of episode.
Temperatures change on Saturday
Saturday will bring an uneven behavior of the thermometers.
The maximum temperatures will rise in much of Spain, but will decrease in Levante, the Balearic Islands, Catalonia, and the Canary Islands. The minimums will increase slightly in the central peninsula and will decrease in the rest of the country and in the archipelagos.
The episode comes after several days of elevated temperatures. The polar mass accompanying the pattern change will cause, in general terms, values to be somewhat below the usual for these dates, according to AEMET's forecast.
The weather on Sunday 23: storms continue
Sunday will not yet end the episode.
The forecast maintains the possibility of showers and locally strong storms in the northeastern peninsula and the Valencian Community. The specific location and intensity still present uncertainty.
The behavior of temperatures will change again. The maximums will tend to rise in the Cantabrian, the northern plateau, the northeast, and the Balearic Islands, while they will decrease in Galicia and the southwest. In the rest, few changes are expected.
The minimums will rise in the northern half and will decrease in the southern half and the Balearic Islands. The Canary Islands will remain outside the main thermal variations.
Rain may continue on Monday
Instability could survive the weekend. AEMET considers that locally strong precipitation may extend until Monday 24 in the northeastern peninsula.
The forecast at that distance still has a high degree of uncertainty. Neither the intensity that the storms will reach nor where the greatest accumulations will occur is settled.
The meteorological agency therefore maintains monitoring of the episode and recommends checking the updates of the predictions and the weather warnings. The current warnings can be checked directly at AEMET.