The gap between births and deaths: which territories need migration to grow

The vegetative balance was negative in 15 of the 17 autonomous communities in 2025, while Spain continues to break population records. The data from the INE shows a gap between natural growth and the evolution of the number of residents.

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Spain has more and more inhabitants although more people die than are born. The vegetative balance closed 2025 with a loss of 122,167 people and was negative in practically the entire autonomous map.

At the same time, the population reached a historic maximum of 49,801,559 residents as of July 1, 2026. The combination of both statistics shows the increasingly relevant role of migration movements to compensate for the natural population deficit.

Spain has more inhabitants despite the negative vegetative balance

The last complete year allows for dimensioning the demographic imbalance without depending on the fluctuations of a single month. Spain recorded in 2025 a negative vegetative balance of 122,167 people, calculated by the INE as the difference between births of resident mothers and deaths of residents in the country.

The quick data published by the agency allows for tracking the evolution of births and deaths during 2026. They are, however, estimates that are revised later. In the case of deaths, the INE itself explains that the monthly series is designed to provide an early approximation and precisely facilitate its comparison with the Monthly Birth Estimate and the quick calculation of vegetative growth.

For this reason, an increase in births or a decrease in deaths during a specific month does not alone indicate a change in trend. The annual perspective shows that the natural deficit is not an isolated phenomenon: already in 2024, the vegetative growth had been negative by 114,937 people.

Only Madrid and Murcia had more births than deaths

The autonomous map of 2025 shows to what extent the natural deficit has spread. The vegetative balance was negative in 15 of the 17 autonomous communities, according to the provisional results of the INE. The only exceptions were the Community of Madrid, with a positive balance of 2,134 people, and the Region of Murcia, with 509.

Among the autonomous cities, Ceuta ended the year with a natural balance of 32 people and Melilla with 215. The situation is different in the rest of the territory, where deaths exceeded births regardless of whether the total population later increased or decreased.

The difference is particularly significant because the vegetative balance and the total population growth do not measure the same thing. The former only accounts for the difference between births and deaths, while the evolution of the number of inhabitants also incorporates the entries and exits of the population.

Vegetative balance by autonomous communities in 2025

Autonomous community Evolution compared to January-June 2025
Andalusia ↑ Increase
Asturias ↑ Increase
Balearic Islands ↓ Decrease
Canary Islands ↓ Decrease
Cantabria ↓ Decrease
Castile and León ↑ Increase
Castile-La Mancha ↓ Decrease
Catalonia ↑ Increase
Valencian Community ↑ Increase
Extremadura ↓ Decrease
Galicia ↓ Decrease
Community of Madrid ↑ Increase
Region of Murcia ↑ Increase
Basque Country ↓ Decrease
La Rioja ↑ Increase
Ceuta ↓ Decrease
Melilla ↓ Decrease

The population grows in all communities

The contrast appears when comparing the natural balance with the Continuous Population Statistics. All autonomous communities gained inhabitants during the second quarter of 2026, despite the fact that the vast majority had recorded more deaths than births during the last complete year.

The largest relative increases between April and June occurred in the Valencian Community, with 0.43%; Balearic Islands, with 0.36%; and Asturias, with 0.29%. The three had ended 2025 with negative vegetative growth, which shows that their increase in residents cannot be explained solely by births and deaths.

A clarification must be introduced here: at the autonomous level, not all increases attributable to population mobility necessarily equate to immigration from abroad. There are also movements between autonomous communities. Therefore, the data allows us to affirm that migration compensates for the natural deficit in numerous territories, but does not automatically attribute all the autonomous increase to international immigration.

The population born abroad drives the growth of Spain

At the national level, the INE does identify directly what is behind the latest increase. The agency indicates that the growth of the Spanish population during the second quarter of 2026 was due to the increase in people born abroad, while the number of residents born in Spain decreased.

Between April and June, the population born in Spain fell by 20,367 people. In contrast, residents born abroad increased by 124,648: 80,933 were foreigners and another 43,715 had Spanish or foreign nationality born outside according to the breakdown published by the agency. The result was a total increase of 104,178 inhabitants.

Spain thus had as of July 1 10,291,807 residents born abroad. This figure is higher than the 7,437,543 residents with foreign nationality because a part of those born outside the country has subsequently acquired Spanish nationality.

Colombia, Venezuela, and Morocco lead arrivals from abroad

The migration data from the second quarter also allows us to know the main nationalities of those who arrived in Spain. Colombians topped the entries, with about 34,000 people, followed by Venezuelans, with 23,300, and Moroccans, with 21,100.

Departures abroad partially reduce the effect of those arrivals. During the same period, the main nationalities among those who emigrated from Spain were Colombian, with 11,500 departures; Moroccan, with 10,900; and Venezuelan, with 5,900.

The combined result helps explain why Spain can register a negative vegetative balance and, simultaneously, reach historic population highs. The country gained 104,178 inhabitants solely during the second quarter and 444,205 when comparing July 1, 2026, with the same date of the previous year.

The Spanish demographic map thus shows two simultaneous realities: most communities record more deaths than births, but the population continues to grow. Migration movements are what allow reconciling both trends and, across Spain, the INE confirms that the last population growth comes from people born abroad.

 

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