The gap between births and deaths: which territories need migration to grow

The vegetative balance was negative in 15 of the 17 autonomous communities in 2025, while Spain continues to break population records. The data from the INE shows a gap between natural growth and the evolution of the number of residents.

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Spain has more and more inhabitants although more people die than are born. The vegetative balance closed 2025 with a loss of 122,167 people and was negative in practically the entire autonomous map.

At the same time, the population reached a historic maximum of 49,801,559 residents as of July 1, 2026. The combination of both statistics shows the increasingly relevant role of migration movements to compensate for the natural population deficit.

Spain has more inhabitants despite the negative vegetative balance

The last complete year allows for dimensioning the demographic imbalance without depending on the fluctuations of a single month. Spain recorded in 2025 a negative vegetative balance of 122,167 people, calculated by the INE as the difference between births of resident mothers and deaths of residents in the country.

The quick data published by the agency allows for tracking the evolution of births and deaths during 2026. They are, however, estimates that are revised later. In the case of deaths, the INE itself explains that the monthly series is designed to provide an early approximation and precisely facilitate its comparison with the Monthly Birth Estimate and the quick calculation of vegetative growth.

For this reason, an increase in births or a decrease in deaths during a specific month does not alone indicate a change in trend. The annual perspective shows that the natural deficit is not an isolated phenomenon: already in 2024, the vegetative growth had been negative by 114,937 people.

Only Madrid and Murcia had more births than deaths

The autonomous map of 2025 shows to what extent the natural deficit has spread. The vegetative balance was negative in 15 of the 17 autonomous communities, according to the provisional results of the INE. The only exceptions were the Community of Madrid, with a positive balance of 2,134 people, and the Region of Murcia, with 509.

Among the autonomous cities, Ceuta ended the year with a natural balance of 32 people and Melilla with 215. The situation is different in the rest of the territory, where deaths exceeded births regardless of whether the total population later increased or decreased.

The difference is particularly significant because the vegetative balance and the total population growth do not measure the same thing. The former only accounts for the difference between births and deaths, while the evolution of the number of inhabitants also incorporates the entries and exits of the population.

Vegetative balance by autonomous communities in 2025

Autonomous community Evolution compared to January-June 2025
Andalusia ↑ Increase
Asturias ↑ Increase
Balearic Islands ↓ Decrease
Canary Islands ↓ Decrease
Cantabria ↓ Decrease
Castile and León ↑ Increase
Castile-La Mancha ↓ Decrease
Catalonia ↑ Increase
Valencian Community ↑ Increase
Extremadura ↓ Decrease
Galicia ↓ Decrease
Community of Madrid ↑ Increase
Region of Murcia ↑ Increase
Basque Country ↓ Decrease
La Rioja ↑ Increase
Ceuta ↓ Decrease
Melilla ↓ Decrease

The population grows in all communities

The contrast appears when comparing the natural balance with the Continuous Population Statistics. All autonomous communities gained inhabitants during the second quarter of 2026, despite the fact that the vast majority had recorded more deaths than births during the last complete year.

The largest relative increases between April and June occurred in the Valencian Community, with 0.43%; Balearic Islands, with 0.36%; and Asturias, with 0.29%. The three had ended 2025 with negative vegetative growth, which shows that their increase in residents cannot be explained solely by births and deaths.

A clarification must be introduced here: at the autonomous level, not all increases attributable to population mobility necessarily equate to immigration from abroad. There are also movements between autonomous communities. Therefore, the data allows us to affirm that migration compensates for the natural deficit in numerous territories, but does not automatically attribute all the autonomous increase to international immigration.

The population born abroad drives the growth of Spain

At the national level, the INE does identify directly what is behind the latest increase. The agency indicates that the growth of the Spanish population during the second quarter of 2026 was due to the increase in people born abroad, while the number of residents born in Spain decreased.

Between April and June, the population born in Spain fell by 20,367 people. In contrast, residents born abroad increased by 124,648: 80,933 were foreigners and another 43,715 had Spanish or foreign nationality born outside according to the breakdown published by the agency. The result was a total increase of 104,178 inhabitants.

Spain thus had as of July 1 10,291,807 residents born abroad. This figure is higher than the 7,437,543 residents with foreign nationality because a part of those born outside the country has subsequently acquired Spanish nationality.

Colombia, Venezuela, and Morocco lead arrivals from abroad

The migration data from the second quarter also allows us to know the main nationalities of those who arrived in Spain. Colombians topped the entries, with about 34,000 people, followed by Venezuelans, with 23,300, and Moroccans, with 21,100.

Departures abroad partially reduce the effect of those arrivals. During the same period, the main nationalities among those who emigrated from Spain were Colombian, with 11,500 departures; Moroccan, with 10,900; and Venezuelan, with 5,900.

The combined result helps explain why Spain can register a negative vegetative balance and, simultaneously, reach historic population highs. The country gained 104,178 inhabitants solely during the second quarter and 444,205 when comparing July 1, 2026, with the same date of the previous year.

The Spanish demographic map thus shows two simultaneous realities: most communities record more deaths than births, but the population continues to grow. Migration movements are what allow reconciling both trends and, across Spain, the INE confirms that the last population growth comes from people born abroad.

 

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What are the legal requirements to acquire Spanish nationality after residing as an immigrant in Spain?

Spanish nationality by residence is the most common way for an immigrant person to obtain nationality. Although procedural details may change, the basic legal requirements remain relatively stable because they are in the Civil Code and its implementing regulations. Below is a summary of the key points you must meet if you have resided in Spain as an immigrant and want to apply for nationality.

1. Minimum time of legal residence in Spain

The central requirement is to have resided legally and continuously in Spain for a minimum period before submitting the application. The general period is 10 years, but there are significant reductions:

  • 10 years: general rule for most foreigners.
  • 5 years: for persons with recognized refugee status.
  • 2 years: for nationals of Ibero-American countries, Andorra, the Philippines, Equatorial Guinea, Portugal, and persons of Sephardic origin.
  • 1 year of sufficient legal residence, among other cases:
    • If you were born in Spanish territory.
    • If you did not exercise the right to opt for nationality in time.
    • If you have been legally under the guardianship, custody, or foster care of a Spanish citizen or institution for at least 2 years.
    • If you have been married to a Spanish citizen for 1 year and are not separated de facto or legally.
    • If you are a widower/widow of a Spanish citizen and were not separated at the time of death.
    • If you were born outside Spain to a father or mother (or grandfather/grandmother) who were originally Spanish.

The residence must be legal, continuous, and immediately prior to the application. Irregular or short stays (tourist visas, for example) are not sufficient.

2. Administrative status and registration

You must have a valid residence permit (temporary or long-term residence card, residence as a family member of an EU citizen, etc.) throughout the required period. Additionally, it is essential to remain registered in Spain, as registration certificates are usually used as proof of effective residence.

3. Good civic conduct and criminal records

The law requires the applicant to demonstrate good civic conduct. In practice, this translates to:

  • Providing criminal record certificates from the country of origin and Spain.
  • Not having serious or repeated crimes, especially recent ones.
  • In some cases, considering serious administrative sanctions (for example, in immigration matters) that may question integration.

The existence of records does not automatically imply denial, but the authority will assess their severity, date, and circumstances.

4. Sufficient degree of integration into Spanish society

Another requirement is to prove a sufficient degree of integration. The main elements are:

  • Knowledge of the Spanish language: unless you come from a Spanish-speaking country, you will usually have to prove a basic level of Spanish.
  • Knowledge of the social and constitutional reality of Spain: evaluated through specific tests on the Constitution, the organization of the State, Spanish culture, and society.
  • Other signs of integration: effective stay in Spain, family ties, labor and social roots, participation in community life, etc.

5. Age of majority and capacity

The following can apply for nationality:

  • Persons of legal age and with full legal capacity, on their own behalf.
  • Minors under 18 years, through their legal representatives (parents, guardians) and with certain nuances depending on age.
  • Persons with judicially modified capacity, through their representative, according to judicial resolutions.

6. Renunciation or compatibility of nationalities

In general, it is required to declare the renunciation of the previous nationality when the country of origin does not have a dual nationality agreement with Spain or does not allow it. However, in practice, people from Ibero-American countries, Andorra, the Philippines, Equatorial Guinea, Portugal, and Sephardic persons usually can keep their original nationality when acquiring Spanish nationality, due to special dual nationality regimes.

7. Oath or promise and closure of the procedure

If the application is granted, before registering the nationality in the Civil Registry you must:

  • Swear or promise loyalty to the King and obedience to the Constitution and laws.
  • Declare the renunciation or compatibility of your previous nationality, as appropriate.

Only with the registration in the Civil Registry is the acquisition of Spanish nationality by residence considered fully effective.

What powers do the autonomous communities have regarding immigration and population according to the Spanish Constitution?

According to the Spanish Constitution, powers regarding immigration and population are structured with a clear predominance of the State, but with significant margins of action for the autonomous communities in related material areas (social services, integration, land planning, etc.). The key lies in the joint reading of articles 148 and 149 of the Constitution.

1. Exclusive powers of the State in immigration and population

Article 149.1 CE lists the matters over which the State holds exclusive competence. Among them, section 2. is especially relevant:

"Nationality, immigration, emigration, foreign affairs, and right of asylum."

This means that:

  • The regulation of entry, stay, and exit requirements for foreigners (visas, residence and work permits, expulsions, family reunification, etc.) is a state competence.
  • Rules on acquisition and loss of nationality and on the legal status of foreigners depend exclusively on the state legislator.
  • Policies on emigration (Spaniards abroad) and on right of asylum and refuge also correspond to the State.

From the perspective of “population” in a statistical and general sense, the same article 149.1, in its section 31., assigns to the State the "statistics for state purposes", which includes major demographic measurement instruments (for example, general censuses or registers for state purposes), although statistical work is later supported by regional and local collaboration.

Additionally, section 1. of the same article assigns to the State the "regulation of the basic conditions that guarantee the equality of all Spaniards", which acts as a transversal limit: although communities adopt their own policies related to population or immigrant integration, they cannot break the basic equality of rights and duties established at the state level.

2. Competence margins of the autonomous communities

The Constitution does not directly mention “immigration” or “population” in the list of matters assumable by the communities (art. 148.1 CE). However, it allows them to assume powers in areas that, in practice, decisively affect the management of migratory and demographic reality.

Among those matters in article 148.1 are:

  • Land planning, urbanism, and housing (148.1.3.): allows communities to design territorial planning and housing policies that affect population distribution, fight against residential segregation, provision of facilities in neighborhoods with a high concentration of immigrants, etc.
  • Social assistance (148.1.20.): communities can organize and manage social services (benefits, aid, programs) aimed at both nationals and resident foreigners, including policies of social inclusion and integration.
  • Health and hygiene (148.1.21.), in coordination with the state bases of art. 149.1.16.: management of regional health systems directly impacts care for the immigrant population and effective access to health services.
  • Promotion of culture and teaching of the own language (148.1.17.): although not a strictly “migratory” competence, it allows designing educational and cultural policies that affect intercultural coexistence and linguistic integration of the foreign-origin population.

Furthermore, the Constitution foresees (art. 148.2 and 149.3) that communities may expand their competences within the framework of 149.1, and that matters not expressly attributed to the State may correspond to them via statute. This has allowed many statutes to include today explicit references to immigrant integration, demographic policy, or support for the returned population, always respecting that the entry and legal status of foreigners are governed by state legislation.

3. Functional distribution: State regulates the “status”, Autonomous Communities manage the “integration”

In summary, it can be said that:

  • The State holds legal control of immigration (nationality, foreigner status, permits, expulsions, asylum, bases of equality and Social Security, major state statistics).
  • The autonomous communities act on the material living conditions of people residing in their territory (health, education within the state framework, social services, housing, land planning, integration and social inclusion policies), which directly affects the immigrant population and demographic balance.

This constitutional distribution requires constant coordination: the State sets the general normative framework for immigration and basic rights, while the communities develop, from their sectoral competences, public policies aimed at managing the social and territorial effects of migratory flows and population evolution.

Could you explain with concrete examples how the autonomous communities use their competences in social services and housing to integrate the immigrant population? What constitutional limits do the autonomous communities face if they wanted to approve their own law on immigration or foreign affairs? How do the State and the autonomous communities coordinate in the collection and use of statistical data on population and immigration?

How many laws or legislative initiatives on migration policy have been presented in the Spanish Congress in the current legislature?

With the information available in the parliamentary and executive databases consulted, it can be clearly identified one legislative initiative in the Congress of Deputies in the current legislature whose main subject is migration policy (migration, foreign affairs, asylum or refuge) and which is processed as a law. There are also other normative initiatives from the Government in migration matters, but not all go through Congress as laws; some are articulated as regulations.

The only initiative with proper parliamentary legislative processing and a central migratory object detected is the following:

  • Royal Decree-Law 2/2025, of March 18, which approves urgent measures to guarantee the best interests of children and adolescents in extraordinary migratory contingency situations, ratified and processed as a bill in the Congress of Deputies.
    • Type: Government royal decree-law, subsequently processed as a bill.
    • Parliamentary identifiers: 130/000016 (as decree-law) and 121/000055 (as bill in Congress).
    • Proponent: Government of Spain.
    • Purpose: to establish a specific mechanism to address extraordinary migratory contingencies affecting unaccompanied foreign minors, regulating, among other aspects, the declaration of these situations, solidarity response plans, and redistribution of minors among autonomous communities.
    • Processing status: Congress agreed to process the decree-law as a bill and it is in process, with the deadline for submitting amendments extended until September 2, 2026.
    • Parliamentary source: initiative file in Congress (121/000055): detail on the Congress website .

From a quantitative point of view, if strictly attending to the question —laws or legislative initiatives on migration policy presented in Congress in the current legislature— and the information found, the answer is:

  • Total legislative initiatives in Congress with a main migratory object identified: 1.
  • Breakdown by type:
    • Government royal decree-laws processed as bills: 1 (Royal Decree-Law 2/2025 → Bill 121/000055).
    • Parliamentary group bills specifically on migration/asylum/foreign affairs: 0 identified in the search conducted.
    • Other government bills with a migratory thematic core: 0 additional identified.
  • Overall status: the located initiative is in process in Congress, after the original decree-law was ratified.

In parallel to this parliamentary processing, other relevant initiatives in foreign affairs and migration have been identified within the Government scope that are not channeled as laws in Congress but as regulatory norms. The main example is:

  • Draft Royal Decree modifying Royal Decree 1155/2024, of November 19, which approves the Regulation of Organic Law 4/2000, on the rights and freedoms of foreigners in Spain and their social integration.
    • Scope: update of the foreign affairs regulation.
    • Status: in public consultation phase at the end of January and beginning of February 2026, within the Government's regulatory processing framework.
    • Relevant note: although it is a normative initiative in migration policy, it is not a law processed by Congress, but a regulatory royal decree, so it is not included in the requested parliamentary count.

It is worth emphasizing a methodological warning: the search was limited to initiatives whose main subject is migration policy (migration, asylum, refuge, foreign affairs, nationality linked to migrants or migrant population integration). There are other laws processed in the legislature that include specific provisions on migrants, asylum seekers, or beneficiaries of international protection —for example, in matters of disability, dependency, education, or other social policies—, but their main focus is not migratory, and therefore they have not been counted as “migration policy laws” for your question.

In summary, based on the information found and under that restrictive criterion of main subject, in the current legislature at least one legislative initiative clearly focused on migration policy has been presented and is being processed in Congress, born as a royal decree-law and converted into a bill for parliamentary debate and amendment. The panorama can be completed with regulatory reforms and sectoral provisions affecting the migrant population, but strictly as “migration policy laws” processed in Congress, the identifiable number is one.

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What was Spain's natural population change in 2025?

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