The increase of pensions for 2027 enters the campaign: the INE will publish the CPI two days before 29N

Sánchez will be able to arrive at the polls with the advanced inflation data that serves as a reference to revalue pensions, although the annual increase is guaranteed by law.

EuropaPress 7778647 varias personas manifestacion lema gobierne quien gobierne pensiones

EuropaPress 7778647 varias personas manifestacion lema gobierne quien gobierne pensiones

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The INE enters the campaign. The Institute of Statistics will announce on November 27 the CPI data with which pensions will be revalued for 2027. Just two days before the celebration of the elections on November 29.

The revaluation of pensions is back on the political calendar just weeks before the general elections. The Government of Pedro Sánchez can take advantage of the final stretch of the campaign to announce how much benefits will increase in 2027 and present the update as one of the social commitments of its management.

However, the ordinary increase is not a concession that the president can decide freely: the system establishes by law the annual update of contributory pensions according to inflation.

The difference between fulfilling that obligation and turning it into an electoral argument lies in the timing and manner of communicating it. The Executive can highlight the increase to pensioners, but the revaluation must be applied regardless of who governs or the electoral calendar.

The context offers a political opportunity for Sánchez. According to what El País published on October 8, the Government studies to make the most of the council of ministers prior to the elections to promote social measures, including the update of pensions. The strategy would allow the PSOE to place social protection at the center of the campaign and force the opposition to express itself on decisions that directly affect millions of voters.

The increase is recognized by law

Law 21/2021, on guaranteeing the purchasing power of pensions, established a revaluation mechanism linked to the CPI. In general, contributory pensions are updated at the beginning of each year according to the average of the year-on-year inflation rates of the twelve months prior to December of the previous year.

The objective is to preserve the purchasing power of pensioners against rising prices. Therefore, the ordinary update does not depend on whether the Government wants to grant it as an electoral measure, but on the application of the current legal mechanism.

By 2027, the calculation will take into account the average evolution of the CPI between December 2025 and November 2026. The definitive data for November will be known in December, after the elections. The Government can communicate an estimate of the increase beforehand, but the definitive percentage will depend on the data that completes the reference period.

This circumstance introduces a relevant element in the campaign: the Executive can anticipate the expected increase and present it as a guarantee for pensioners, even though the final figure has not yet been confirmed when the elections are held.

the revaluation calendar

November

The reference period of the CPI closes

November is the last month used to calculate the average inflation that determines the increase for the following year. The INE publishes the preliminary data at the end of November and the definitive data in December.

December

The Government can approve the revaluation

Once the definitive data is known, the Executive can approve the corresponding regulation. If it resorts to a royal decree-law, it needs its validation by Congress or, if applicable, by the Permanent Deputation.

January

The increase comes into effect

The revaluation corresponds to the beginning of the year. If the regulation is approved later, it can have retroactive effects from January 1 and the corresponding arrears can be paid.

*The rule is included in the article 58 of the General Law on Social Security, amended by Law 21/2021.

Without Budgets, the Government resorts to the decree-law

The lack of new General State Budgets adds a particularity to the procedure. The revaluation of pensions is not automatically incorporated into a budget extension. The Government must approve a regulation that establishes the update and, when it resorts to a royal decree-law, it needs Congress to validate it.

The most recent precedent illustrates the difficulties that this procedure can encounter. On December 23, 2025, the Executive approved Royal Decree-Law 16/2025, which included measures in tax and Social Security matters, among them the update of pensions. The regulation did not achieve parliamentary validation and was repealed on January 28, 2026.

The Government had to approve a new provision on February 3 to set the revaluation of pensions for that year. Royal Decree-Law 3/2026 established a general increase of 2.7%, with effects from January 1.

The episode shows that formal approval may be delayed due to parliamentary difficulties, but that the update can be recognized with effects from the beginning of the fiscal year. Pensioners do not have to lose the increase corresponding to January because the regulation is approved later: the decree can expressly set its application from January 1 and regularize the pending amounts.

The preamble of the Royal Decree-law 3/2026 itself justifies the approval of the regulation without waiting for new Budgets and reminds that the revaluation is not included, as a general rule, in the budget extension. The case demonstrates that the Executive has a regulatory avenue to update benefits, although its continuity depends on parliamentary validation.

The precedents of 2018 and 2020

The use of royal decree-laws to update pensions is not exclusive to the current legislature. In December 2018, the Government approved Royal Decree-law 28/2018, which included measures for the revaluation of pensions in 2019.

In January 2020, the Executive resorted to this formula again. Royal Decree-law 1/2020, approved on January 14 and published the next day, established a general increase of 0.9% for that year, with effects from January 1. The regulation also contemplated subsequent regularization if the recorded inflation exceeded the initially applied increase.

Both precedents reflect a usual dynamic: the Government specifies the update through a regulation and can recognize retroactive effects from the beginning of the fiscal year. The obligation to revalue benefits and the procedure used to do so are distinct issues.

Consequently, it is not correct to present the annual increase as an extraordinary measure that the Executive grants to pensioners. What may vary is the regulatory instrument, the timing of its approval, and the political communication that accompanies the decision.

The political margin is in the announcement

The coincidence between the electoral calendar and the update of pensions offers Sánchez the possibility of giving prominence to a measure of great social impact in the final stretch of the campaign. The Government can anticipate the expected increase, highlight its commitment to maintaining purchasing power, and contrast its policy with the proposals of the opposition.

The difference is that the announcement does not create the obligation to revalue the benefits: that obligation already exists. The ordinary update must be applied in accordance with the law, regardless of whether the Government decides to communicate it before or after the elections.

The political margin of the Executive lies in the moment chosen to announce the estimate, in the processing of the regulation that will set the definitive percentage, and in the possible additional improvements that it may propose for certain benefits. The latter must be distinguished from the general increase linked to the CPI, because they may respond to specific decisions and have different regulation.

The question, therefore, is not whether there will be an ordinary revaluation of pensions in 2027, but when the Government will announce the estimate, how it will process the definitive update, and what prominence it will give it in the campaign.

More key points, information and questions with FREN

AI-GENERATED CONTENT

What are the parliamentary procedures required to validate a royal decree-law on pension revaluation?

The validation of a royal decree-law on pension revaluation follows exactly the same process as any other decree-law. The basic framework is in Article 86 of the Constitution and Article 151 of the Congress Regulations (amended in 2025), along with the provisions on the Permanent Deputation. From there, the procedure can be described in a clear sequence of phases.

1. Approval by the Government and publication
  • Approval in the Council of Ministers: the Government approves the royal decree-law on pension revaluation in the Council of Ministers, citing the “extraordinary and urgent need” required by Article 86.1 CE.
  • Promulgation and Official State Gazette (BOE): the text is promulgated and published in the "Official State Gazette". From that moment it comes into force under the terms established by the royal decree-law itself (often the same day or the day after its publication).
  • Immediate submission to the Congress: according to Article 86.2 CE, the Government must submit it “immediately” to the Congress of Deputies for debate and a vote on the entirety.
2. Deadline and competence of the Chamber
  • Maximum period of 30 days: the Congress must debate and vote on the validation or repeal of the royal decree-law before thirty days have passed since its promulgation (art. 86.2 CE and art. 151.1 of the Congress Regulations).
  • Competent chamber: the competence lies with the Plenary of the Congress or, if the Chamber is dissolved or its mandate has expired, with the Permanent Deputation, which assumes the powers related to decree-laws (art. 57 of the Regulations).
  • Insertion in the agenda: the Regulations allow the decree-law to be included in the Plenary agenda as soon as it has been published in the BOE, without waiting for the end of the 30-day period.
3. Session convocation
  • If the Congress is in an ordinary session period, the debate is included in the agenda of a Plenary within the 30-day period.
  • If the Congress is not convened (outside session period), it must be convened “for this purpose” to debate and vote on the decree-law, or the Permanent Deputation is convened if the Congress is dissolved or its mandate has expired.
4. Debate on the entirety
  • Presentation by the Government: a member of the Government (typically the head of the Ministry of Inclusion, Social Security, or Economy, as appropriate) presents to the Chamber the reasons for the extraordinary and urgent need and the content of the royal decree-law.
  • Debate according to the rules of entirety debates: parliamentary groups intervene with the turns and times established by the Regulations. Specific amendments to the articles are not debated; what is discussed is the entire text and the appropriateness of the instrument.
5. Vote on validation or repeal
  • Single vote on the whole: once the debate concludes, a single vote is held in which each deputy casts their vote.
  • Required majority: a simple majority of the votes cast is sufficient (more affirmative than negative votes). An absolute majority or specific reinforced quorum is not required.
  • Meaning of the votes (art. 151.3 of the Regulations):
    • Affirmative votes are understood as favorable to validation.
    • Negative votes are understood as favorable to repeal.
  • Consequences:
    • If validated, the royal decree-law remains in force as such.
    • If repealed, it ceases to be in force, without prejudice to possible subsequent regulation of the matter through ordinary law or other instruments.
  • Publication of the agreement: the validation or repeal agreement is published in the BOE by resolution of the Presidency of the Congress.
6. Decision on its processing as a bill
  • Once validated, the Presidency of the Congress asks if any parliamentary group wishes the royal decree-law to be processed as a bill.
  • If any group requests it, the request is submitted to the Plenary's decision:
    • If the Plenary approves it, the text is processed as a bill through the urgent procedure.
    • In this processing, total return amendments are not admissible, but amendments to the articles are allowed, which permits adjusting or modifying the pension revaluation design.
  • If no one requests it or the Plenary rejects this processing, the validated decree-law remains definitively as such.
7. Specific role of the Permanent Deputation
  • In case of dissolution of the Congress or expiration of the mandate, the Permanent Deputation:
    • Assumes all the powers that the Constitution attributes to the Congress regarding decree-laws (including validation or repeal).
    • Meets, debates, and votes following the same rules as the Plenary.
    • Once the new Congress is constituted, reports to the Plenary on the agreements adopted, including the validation of pension revaluation decree-laws if any.

In summary, the validation procedure is a rapid parliamentary control, with a maximum period of thirty days, a simple majority vote, and the possibility of opening, if the Congress so decides, a subsequent processing as a bill to more precisely adjust the content of the royal decree-law on pensions.

Could you detail what material limits Article 86 of the Constitution imposes on royal decree-laws, applied to the case of pension revaluation? How would the processing as a bill of a royal decree-law on pension revaluation that has already been validated proceed, step by step? What practical differences are there between validating a royal decree-law on pensions in Plenary and doing so through the Permanent Deputation?

What powers does the Prime Minister have in the approval of decree-laws in Social Security matters?

The Prime Minister does not approve royal decree-laws alone, not even in Social Security matters. His role is central as head of the Government and president of the Council of Ministers, but the formal competence to issue royal decree-laws corresponds to the Government itself as a collegiate body, under the conditions of Article 86 of the Constitution and the regulations on the Government.

Firstly, the Prime Minister directs the Executive's action (art. 97 CE) and presides over the Council of Ministers. This grants him political impetus and agenda-setting capacity: he effectively decides whether a draft royal decree-law is submitted to the Council and when. He can commission the competent ministers (in this case, those of Social Security, Labor, Treasury, etc.) to prepare a decree-law proposal to respond to a situation of extraordinary and urgent need, an inescapable constitutional requirement. But the final decision to approve it is always collegiate: the Council of Ministers adopts it by agreement and the text is formally issued by the Government, not by the Prime Minister personally.

Secondly, regarding the relationship with sectoral ministers, the Prime Minister sets the broad guidelines and coordinates. The technical content of the royal decree-law in Social Security matters — for example, on pensions, contributions, or system management — is developed in the competent departments, which assume the technical and legal initiative. The Prime Minister can mediate conflicts between ministries (for example, between Social Security and Treasury) and perform the final political synthesis, but does not replace the material competence of each minister. The head of Social Security usually defends the text in the Council and prepares, together with the Presidency, the explanatory statement justifying the urgency.

Thirdly, the constitutional requirements of the royal decree-law strictly limit presidential action. Article 86 CE requires that there be a situation of extraordinary and urgent need, which must be reasoned in the decree-law itself. It also sets material limits: royal decree-laws cannot affect the organization of the basic State institutions, the rights, duties, and freedoms of citizens regulated in Title I, the regime of the Autonomous Communities, nor the general electoral law. In Social Security, the scope of action is relatively broad, but when measures affect rights recognized in Title I (for example, the essential content of the right to Social Security or union freedom linked to benefits and contributions), the Government — and within it the Prime Minister — must strictly respect those limits. Not even urgency allows crossing those material boundaries.

Fourthly, the internal procedure is articulated around the Council of Ministers. Once the draft is prepared by the competent ministries and legally supervised (usually by the State Attorney General's Office and regulatory coordination bodies), the Prime Minister decides its inclusion in the agenda and presides over the deliberation. If the Council agrees to approve the royal decree-law, the text is signed by the King and the Prime Minister, according to the general rule of countersignature. The Prime Minister's signature implies political and legal responsibility before the Cortes, but does not mean that the competence is his exclusively: he acts as the ultimate responsible of a Government act.

Fifthly, subsequent parliamentary control reduces the Executive's room for maneuver and balances the Prime Minister's position. The Congress Regulations, in Title VI, develop Article 86.2 CE: the Congress (or the Permanent Deputation in certain cases) must hold a debate and vote on validation or repeal within thirty days following promulgation. A Government member presents the reasons that led to issuing the decree-law and, after the debate, votes in favor are understood as support for validation and votes against as support for repeal. Additionally, the Congress can decide that the validated decree-law be processed as a bill by the urgent procedure, with the possibility of introducing amendments.

This parliamentary control does not retrospectively modify the Prime Minister's formal powers in approving the decree-law, but acts as a very relevant political counterweight: the Prime Minister knows that any use of this power, also in Social Security, will be scrutinized by the Congress, which can repeal the text or profoundly alter its content through processing as a bill. In short, the Prime Minister leads and coordinates the Government's decision to resort to the decree-law, but always within a framework of collegiate Government competence, subject to strict constitutional limits and intense subsequent parliamentary control.

Could you explain in more detail what is meant by “extraordinary and urgent need” in royal decree-laws, with examples in Social Security matters? What competency differences exist between the Prime Minister and the Minister of Social Security when processing a pension reform by ordinary law versus a royal decree-law? How does the Congress Regulations develop the validation debate of a decree-law and what margin do groups have to condition it, especially on Social Security issues?

Which political parties have led the opposition to pension revaluations in previous legislatures?

Since 2000, opposition to measures on pension revaluation has shifted hands depending on who was in Government and the content of the reform. Very briefly:

  • Against the freeze for 2011 decided by a PSOE Government, the PP led the opposition.
  • Against the 0.25% revaluation index approved by the PP Government in 2013, the PSOE and the parliamentary left led the contestation.
  • Against the 2021–2023 reforms of the PSOE–Unidas Podemos coalition Government, the main opponents have been PP and Vox, with occasional support from other groups in specific votes.
1. Pension freeze for 2011 (Zapatero Government)

In 2010, the Government of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero (PSOE) approved the adjustment that entailed the freeze of the revaluation of most contributory pensions in 2011, except for minimum and non-contributory pensions, which increased by 1% (according to economic press and subsequent parliamentary debates, where it is recalled that “it froze pensions except the minimum ones”).

In this episode:

  • The governing party was the PSOE.
  • The PP positioned itself as the main opposition party, denouncing the freeze and demanding to maintain the update with the CPI. In Congress, a motion was even promoted demanding not to freeze pensions, supported by practically all opposition except the socialist group (referenced in the press of the time, cited in later compilations).
  • Other left-wing and nationalist groups (IU, ERC, among others) and unions also criticized the measure for the loss of purchasing power.

This is the only recent episode in which the freeze was approved with a socialist Government and the opposition led by the PP focused on avoiding loss of purchasing power.

2. 0.25% revaluation index (PP reform of 2013)

With Mariano Rajoy's Government (PP), Law 23/2013 introduced the Pension Revaluation Index, which in deficit situations limits the ordinary increase to 0.25% annually. According to Demócrata's analysis, between 2014 and 2018 that 0.25% was applied generally, while inflation was higher, implying accumulated losses of purchasing power.[3]

In this cycle (2013–2018):

  • The PP governed.
  • The PSOE led the opposition to the new index, demanding a return to the CPI and denouncing a “silent cut” of purchasing power.
  • IU, UPyD and later Podemos joined, as well as various nationalist parties (PNV, ERC, BNG, among others) and pensioners' platforms. In the Toledo Pact debates, it is recalled that if the 0.25% had been maintained, in a few decades the average pension would have lost about half its real value.[Search Demócrata, id 3]

In summary, in the 2013–2018 stage, the block leading opposition to the revaluation policy (0.25% and disappearance of CPI as automatic reference) was formed by PSOE and the rest of the parliamentary left, with support from nationalists and pensioners' social movements.

3. 2021–2023 reforms of the PSOE–Unidas Podemos Government

From 2021, the PSOE–Unidas Podemos coalition Government promoted several reforms that, according to Demócrata's note, entail:

  • The repeal of the 0.25% index and the sustainability factor of the PP.
  • The legal linkage of the annual pension revaluation to the average CPI, to maintain purchasing power.[Demócrata, id 3]
  • An increase in contributions (Intergenerational Equity Mechanism) and gradual increase of maximum bases to strengthen income.

In response to these reforms:

  • PSOE and Unidas Podemos govern.
  • The PP positions itself as the main opposition party to this package, voting against the 2021 law and subsequent developments and accusing the Government of raising system costs and risking its sustainability.[RTVE and Demócrata, collected in the investigation]
  • Vox also votes against the 2021 reform and later CPI-linked revaluations, questioning both the cost of increases and the public pension model itself. The press reports statements from its spokesperson warning that they would not support “not even a decree only on revaluation” because they do not support “anything from this Government”.[Nueva Economía Fórum, 01/24/2025]
  • Ciudadanos rejects at least some CPI-linked revaluations in the 2023 Budgets, according to voting summaries in the press.
  • Other groups (for example CUP) oppose the 2021 text from critical positions on the general system architecture, while ERC, EH Bildu, BNG, Más País tend to critical abstention in that first phase.

Thus, in this stage, opposition is not so much against the idea of raising pensions, but against the combination of automatic CPI + higher contributions and the financial impact of the reforms.

4. Recent episodes in the XV legislature

Although your question focuses on reforms up to 2023, the dynamic continues in the XV legislature:

  • In 2024 and 2025, PP, Vox, and Junts have caused the fall of several “omnibus” decrees that included the annual pension revaluation along with other social measures, forcing the Government to split the texts and approve specific decrees to guarantee the increase.[Demócrata, ids 10 and 125845]
  • The Government accuses these parties of “leaving millions of pensioners in suspense,” while PP and Junts maintain they support revaluation but reject the packaging with other policies.
Conclusion

Looking at the whole period:

  • Against the 2011 freeze: opposition leadership by PP, with broad support from the rest of the opposition.
  • Against the 0.25% index and CPI delinking (2013–2018): opposition leadership by PSOE and the parliamentary left (IU, then Podemos), accompanied by nationalists and pensioners' platforms.
  • Against the 2021–2023 reforms that lock in the CPI and raise contributions: opposition led by PP and Vox, with occasional support from other groups like Ciudadanos.

In short, there is no single party that has “always” led the opposition to revaluations: PP and PSOE have alternated that role depending on who governed and what type of revaluation or formula was proposed, while forces to their left and right have aligned more stably with their respective views on sufficiency and sustainability of the system.

Can you detail how each parliamentary group voted in the main pension reforms of 2011, 2013, 2021, and 2023? What role have unions and pensioners' movements played in opposing these revaluation policies? How have PP, PSOE, and Vox justified their positions on linking or not pensions to the CPI in recent parliamentary debates?

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What data will the INE publish on November 27 that affects the pensions of 2027?

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According to current law, how is the annual increase of contributory pensions calculated?

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What happens if the royal decree-law on pension revaluation is not ratified by Congress?

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