Vox is considering not presenting candidates for the Senate in certain provinces to concentrate the right-wing vote in the Popular Party ahead of the general elections on November 29. The formation led by Santiago Abascal is contemplating renouncing to compete in those constituencies where its candidates have little chance of gaining representation and asking its voters to support the popular candidates, according to what El País reported this Saturday.
The decision would represent a change in Vox's electoral strategy, which until now had rejected the PP's calls to avoid competition between the two formations in the Upper House. The move comes after the PSOE and Frente Amplio have reached an agreement to present joint candidates for the Senate, under the name "Senado de Progreso," with the aim of concentrating their support.
Abascal has reacted to this pact with a "message of calm" directed at his voters. The president of Vox has assured that his formation will act "with a broad perspective" and will do "what is necessary" to prevent a potential government of PP and Vox from depending on the socialists in the Senate.
"Sánchez is capable of anything to destroy Spain. But we are also capable of anything to save it," the leader stated on his X account.
In the same vein, the general secretary of Vox, Ignacio Garriga, warned this Saturday, during an event in El Escorial (Madrid), that his party will have to make "difficult decisions."
A selective withdrawal without the need for a coalition
The formula that Vox is studying would allow coordinating the vote with the PP without the need to register an electoral coalition. The legal deadline to establish these alliances ended at midnight on Friday, October 16, so both formations can no longer formalize a pact equivalent to that reached by PSOE and Frente Amplio.
However, the electoral calendar still allows for modifying the strategy for presenting candidates. The parties must register their lists between October 21 and 26, and according to the published information, there is also the possibility of withdrawing candidates presented within the legally established deadlines.
Vox mainly manages two alternatives. The first would consist of incorporating some of its candidates into the lists of the Popular Party, a possibility that is considered unlikely. The second, which is gaining more relevance, would involve not presenting its own candidates in certain provinces and expressly asking for votes for the populars.
For now, the leadership of Vox has not communicated in which constituencies this strategy could be applied nor how many candidacies it would be willing to withdraw. A formal agreement with the PP to carry it out has also not been announced.
The precedent of 2023: more than 2.7 million votes without representation
The decision that Vox is studying has as a precedent the results of the general elections of July 23, 2023. In that call, the party did not achieve any senator by direct election, despite its most voted candidates gathering more than 2.7 million votes across the constituencies, according to data collected by El País.
The absence of representation for Vox did not prevent the Popular Party from achieving an absolute majority in the Upper House. However, the agreement between PSOE and Frente Amplio introduces a new element in the electoral competition, allowing both formations to concentrate their support on shared candidacies.
The explanation lies in the election system of the Senate. In the peninsular provinces, four representatives are elected, but each voter can vote for a maximum of three candidates. The seats are awarded to the four people who receive the most votes, which usually translates into a distribution of three senators for the most voted candidacy and one for the next.
In this context, the dispersion of support among different candidacies can influence the result, especially in those provinces where the differences between the candidates are small. However, a withdrawal from Vox would not guarantee that all its voters would automatically transfer their votes to the candidates of the PP.
A decision with consequences for the relationship between Feijóo and Abascal
The eventual renunciation to present candidacies would also have political implications for the relationships between PP and Vox. Until now, Abascal had rejected the electoral coordination proposals from the populars, considering that they could favor the concentration of votes in Alberto Núñez Feijóo's party to the detriment of his own.
A change of position would therefore imply accepting an electoral collaboration formula that Vox had ruled out in previous calls. The possibility arises at a time when both formations have avoided intensifying their public confrontations during the early stages of the pre-campaign and keep the option of governing jointly after the 29N open.
The strategy, however, presents territorial difficulties. In certain constituencies, there are discrepancies between both organizations that could complicate an explicit request for votes in favor of the popular party. This is the case in Ceuta, where Vox has differences with the president of the autonomous city, Juan Jesús Vivas, from the PP.
Moreover, renouncing to run for the Senate could have consequences for Vox's campaign for Congress, where both formations will continue to compete separately. The party leadership will have to assess how to convey to its voters a different voting recommendation for each Chamber.
The National Executive Committee will have the final word
The final decision corresponds to the National Executive Committee of Vox, the body responsible for approving electoral candidacies. Its pronouncement will reveal whether the formation maintains its initial intention to run for the Senate in all constituencies or introduces territorial exceptions.
The calendar leaves a limited margin to resolve the issue. The deadline for submitting candidacies will end on October 26, a date that will allow checking how far the coordination between PP and Vox goes and in which provinces it translates into an effective withdrawal of candidates.
For the moment, Abascal has left the door open to adopting measures to respond to the left's agreement, but has not announced any specific renunciation. The decision that Vox makes will determine whether the competition for the Senate reproduces the confrontation between candidates from both parties or incorporates a formula of electoral cooperation without a formal coalition.