The Permanent Court of Arbitration issued a favorable ruling for Pakistan on Monday and urged Indian authorities to restore the Indus Waters Treaty, which New Delhi unilaterally rendered ineffective at the end of April. In its decision, the tribunal orders India to reinstate the full validity of the agreement and to halt the scope of works on a hydroelectric plant located in the disputed region of Kashmir.
In its resolution, the court based in the Dutch city of The Hague emphasized that the agreement, signed in 1960, remains "in full force" and cannot be revoked solely by the Indian government. Thus, it determines that an independent expert must rule before July 2027 on whether the construction of plants in the area meets the conditions set forth in the treaty.
According to the court in a statement, India has no legal basis to terminate or suspend the treaty, which was put on hold after the attack carried out on April 22 in Pahalgam, in the Indian-administered Kashmir, in which nearly thirty people died.
Since then, New Delhi continues to blame Islamabad for the attack and has frozen the application of the agreement. The text establishes that India grants Pakistan the use of 80% of the flow of the rivers in the Indus basin, essential for the survival and economy of Pakistan.
The tribunal has analyzed whether there is an international armed conflict between the two states that could justify the suspension or termination of the treaty. "The court concludes that such a conflict does not currently exist and that, in any case, the treaty is of such nature that it would remain in force during a conflict of this kind. It has been observed that it has remained in effect during multiple armed conflicts since 1960," the document states.
"Finding no basis for the suspension or termination of the agreement, the court considers the possibility that India's conduct was justified as a "countermeasure" in response to a prior violation of International Law by Pakistan. However, it has been determined that the requirements for a lawful countermeasure had not been met," the tribunal has stated.
In this line, the court emphasizes that the suspension of the treaty "affects India's obligations to protect fundamental Human Rights, does not adhere to India's obligations under the treaty and would prevent the application of the provisions on dispute resolution provided for therein."
The arbitral instance concludes, therefore, that India's decision to suspend the application of the agreement "is not admissible either under the treaty or under other applicable norms of International Law."
"Consequently, it determines that the treaty has not been terminated nor its application suspended, but remains fully in force. India remains bound by the treaty and must fulfill its obligations under it, including those related to the design and operation of hydroelectric projects on the western rivers and dispute resolution," it has argued.
The Indus Waters Treaty, signed with the mediation of the World Bank —under which India manages the Beas, Ravi, and Sutlej rivers, while Pakistan manages Chenab, Indus, and Jhelum—, has withstood the two major wars between the two countries, in 1965 and 1971, as well as the cross-border fighting of 1999. A potential collapse of the agreement would mean, analysts warn, a critical turn in the already tense bilateral relations.