The former president of the Generalitat Carles Puigdemont has the possibility of returning to Spain in the weeks leading up to the general elections on November 29. The withdrawal of the national arrest warrant against him clears one of the main judicial obstacles for his return, although his legal situation is still not completely resolved because the effective application of the amnesty to his case is still pending.
The coincidence of judicial timelines with the electoral calendar adds a political dimension to a potential return after years outside of Spain. For now, it is not confirmed when Puigdemont will return nor what role he would play during the electoral campaign, so the scenario will depend on both the upcoming judicial decisions and those made by the former president himself.
The ruling of the Constitutional Court on embezzlement has altered, in any case, a scenario that for years had conditioned any possibility of return. The uncertainty now shifts to when the Supreme Court will complete the application of that doctrine and whether Puigdemont will decide to return before the elections on November 29.
Sánchez celebrates the ruling and rules out a meeting
Pedro Sánchez has defended the decision of the Constitutional Court during the press conference held this Tuesday at La Moncloa. The president of the Government has placed the amnesty and pardons within the political response adopted by his Executive in the face of the Catalan conflict and has claimed those decisions as part of his commitment to coexistence.
The head of the Executive has maintained that the measures adopted in recent years did not respond to the interests of certain political formations, but to the purpose of addressing a problem that he considers to be of a political nature and improving coexistence in Catalonia.
The possible return of Puigdemont, however, will not be accompanied, at least according to the position now expressed by Sánchez, by a meeting between the two leaders. When asked about that possibility, the president was blunt: "I do not contemplate meeting with either a candidate or a politician or another".
Sánchez has linked that response to the scenario opened by the general elections, in which the different forces and their candidates will defend their respective projects before the citizens. At the same time, he has safeguarded the dialogue that may be necessary due to his institutional responsibilities, differentiating it from a possible political meeting during the electoral period.
The position acquires special relevance due to the relationship that PSOE and Junts have maintained during the legislature and because of the weight that the deputies of the independentist formation have had in some of the main votes in Congress. The electoral call now opens a different stage, in which the relationship between both formations is conditioned by the campaign and by the result of the ballots.
Junqueras calls for a new political stage
The decision of the Constitutional Court has also received a response from Oriol Junqueras, who has defended the opening of a new stage once the path to apply the amnesty for the embezzlement linked to the procés has been cleared.
The leader of ERC has demanded that Catalonia be able to democratically decide its future, placing the judicial pronouncement as a step within a political conflict that, from the perspective of the republicans, does not end with the application of the Amnesty Law.
The reaction shows that the progress in the application of the amnesty does not mean the abandonment of the political demands of independence. The resolution of judicial proceedings and the proposals that ERC, Junts, and the rest of the formations bring to the elections on November 29 therefore take place on different planes.
The proximity of the general elections may cause both issues to converge in the coming weeks. Both the situation of Puigdemont and that of Junqueras are crossed by pending judicial decisions just when the independentist formations must define their candidacies and their strategy for the 29N.
The return still has no confirmed calendar
Despite the change in his judicial situation, Puigdemont has not yet set a date to return to Spain. Sources from Junts maintain that the former president will wait for the amnesty to be effectively applied to him before embarking on the return.
This position implies waiting for the Supreme Court to specify the consequences of the doctrine established by the Constitutional Court. The withdrawal of the national arrest warrant eliminates the immediate risk of being arrested in execution of that measure, but it does not yet equate to the definitive closure of his case.
The next milestone will therefore be the resolution adopted by Pablo Llarena once he has analyzed the ruling of the Constitutional Court and its effects on the proceedings opened against Puigdemont. That decision will allow knowing how far the legal change goes and whether the amnesty is finally applied to the former president.
From there, the decision about the moment to return will be political and personal. The proximity of the elections makes it possible for the return to occur during the electoral period, but there is currently no confirmation that Puigdemont will return before November 29 nor that he will participate in campaign events in Spain.
The calendar is thus marked by two distinct unknowns. One corresponds to the Supreme Court, which must complete the judicial response regarding the amnesty; the other, to Puigdemont, who will have to decide when to return and what role he wants to play in the political scenario opened by the general elections.