Spain grows, but prices press: the two sides of the IMF forecasts

As of October 13, 2026, the General State Budgets (PGE) for 2026 are not under parliamentary processing. The Government has not submitted a draft PGE 2026 bill to the Congress, so the budget cycle in the Cortes has not even started. The 2026 fiscal year is governed by the extension of the 2023 Budgets.

1. Formal status of the 2026 PGE in the Cortes

According to institutional and press information consulted, there is no record of any Draft General State Budget Law for 2026 registered in the Congress of Deputies. This implies that:

• There has been no agreement by the Council of Ministers sending a PGE 2026 draft bill as such to the Cortes.
• There has been no qualification and admission for processing by the Congress Board.
• The period for amendments (total or partial) on 2026 accounts has not been opened.
• There have been no appearances before the Budget Committee to explain a PGE 2026 draft.
• There has been no general debate on the 2026 PGE in the Plenary of the Congress nor, therefore, work in the subcommittee, committee report, or Senate phase.

In plain terms: there is no parliamentary file for a 2026 Budget Law. What has been processed in the Cortes are the agreements on stability and debt objectives and the non-financial expenditure limit (the so-called “spending ceiling”) for 2026–2028, but these agreements are a preliminary step and do not equate to the start of the budget law processing.

2. Actual phase of the budget cycle: pre-parliamentary stage

On the Executive side, the Ministry of Finance had indeed advanced in preparing the accounts:

• The Order HAC/974/2025, of September 1, published in the BOE on September 3, 2025, set the rules for preparing the 2026 PGE, that is, it launched the technical budgeting work within the Administration.
• The Government sent to the Cortes agreements on budgetary stability and public debt objectives and the non-financial spending limit for 2026–2028, which have been debated and voted on in Congress and Senate, with mixed results and some still under processing.
• Moreover, there has even been a conflict between constitutional bodies (No. 8992-2025) precisely due to the failure to present the PGE draft bill for 2024, 2025, and 2026 and the repeated use of budget extensions, recorded in the BOE of February 28, 2026.

All this confirms that the cycle has remained in the preparatory and political decision phase within the Government, without the key step that activates the legislative procedure: the registration of the Budget draft bill in Congress.

3. Consequences: budget extension in 2026

Article 134.4 of the Constitution establishes that if the Budget Law is not approved before the first day of the corresponding fiscal year, the previous year's budgets are automatically extended until new ones are approved.

Since there is no PGE 2026 draft under processing nor, therefore, an approved law, the State operates in 2026 with the extension of the 2023 General Budgets, approved by Law 31/2022, of December 23. The extension can be complemented with agreements and technical rules to adapt credits to the current administrative organization, but:

• It is not a “2026 Budget Law,” but the continuation of the 2023 one.
• It does not follow the typical schedule of appearances, amendments, reports, and double reading Congress–Senate typical of an ordinary PGE law.

4. Relation to the 2026 political calendar

The lack of budget processing occurs in a political context marked by the dissolution of Congress and Senate on October 6, 2026 and the calling of general elections. While the Cortes are dissolved, they cannot process a Budget draft bill. Any future initiative on possible accounts for 2026 or, more likely, for 2027, must be promoted before new Chambers.

5. Final summary

In strictly parliamentary terms, the General State Budgets for 2026 are today before the first phase of the legislative procedure: the draft has not been presented nor admitted for processing in Congress. Therefore, there is no amendment phase, subcommittee, committee, Plenary, or Senate review underway. The State operates under the extension of the 2023 PGE, while the Government has handled the preliminary instruments (preparation order, stability objectives, and spending ceiling) but without culminating them in a Budget law for 2026.

The department responsible for the economic policy of the Government of Spain today is the Ministry of Economy, Commerce and Enterprise. According to our database, which collects official records, its head is Carlos Cuerpo Caballero, who serves as First Vice President of the Government and Minister of Economy, Commerce and Enterprise since March 2026, after being appointed minister in December 2023. From this position, he leads the design and execution of general economic policy and major structural reforms.

Main competencies of the Ministry of Economy

The Ministry's functions are systematically set out in Royal Decree 410/2024, of April 23, which develops its basic organic structure, in coordination with Royal Decree 1009/2023, which establishes the general structure of ministerial departments. Based on that regulation and official information from the Ministry itself, its major competency blocks are as follows:

• General economic policy and structural reforms: prepares and coordinates the Government's economic strategy, defines medium- and long-term economic policy lines, and promotes reforms to improve competitiveness, productivity, and the potential growth of the Spanish economy.
• Macroeconomic analysis and forecasts: through its general directorates of analysis and economic policy, monitors the economic situation, prepares forecasts of GDP, employment, inflation, and other aggregates, and evaluates risk scenarios, which serve as a basis for budgetary and reform decisions.
• Financial policy and financial system: designs basic financial regulation, promotes rules on solvency and supervision of the financial system, and maintains relations with supervisors and bodies such as the Bank of Spain or the National Securities Market Commission when the initiative comes from the Government.
• Public Treasury, debt, and international financing: through the General Secretariat of the Treasury and International Financing, manages the State debt, market issuances, relations with investors and international financial organizations, and Spain's participation in European stability and financing mechanisms.
• Insurance, reinsurance, and pension funds: the General Directorate of Insurance and Pension Funds regulates and supervises, within its scope, insurance activity and private pension systems, including solvency, policyholder protection, and prudential supervision instruments.
• Prevention of money laundering (within its remit): participates in designing regulation and coordinating with other departments and supervisory authorities on money laundering and terrorist financing prevention, especially in its financial dimension.
• Domestic, foreign, and intra-community trade policy: sets the State's trade policy, both in the domestic market and in foreign and intra-community trade. This includes negotiating and executing trade agreements, trade defense, and regulating retail trade in coordination with autonomous communities.
• Internationalization of companies and foreign investments: designs and promotes the internationalization strategy of Spanish companies, coordinates the network of economic and commercial offices abroad, and regulates foreign investments and transactions, including those related to strategic sectors and controls over investments in sensitive assets.

These competencies are also exercised through agreements, business competitiveness support programs, management of public financial instruments, and participation in bodies such as FROB or SEPI when the initiative corresponds to Economy.

Basic organic structure

The Ministry's top structure revolves around the minister and is mainly organized into two major Secretariats of State, supported by the Undersecretariat and the Technical General Secretariat:

• Secretariat of State for Economy and Business Support:
  • General Secretariat of the Treasury and International Financing, which oversees the General Directorate of the Treasury and Financial Policy and the General Directorate of International Financing, responsible for debt management, market relations, and the architecture of international financing.
  • General Directorate of Economic Policy, which coordinates the design of economic policy, monitoring of reforms, and relations with national and international economic institutions.
  • General Directorate of Economic Analysis, responsible for analyzing medium- and long-term trends of the Spanish economy and main structural challenges, as detailed in Royal Decree 410/2024.
  • General Directorate of Insurance and Pension Funds, with the functions already mentioned regarding insurance and private social security.
• Secretariat of State for Commerce:
  • General Directorate of International Trade and Investments, which manages internationalization policy, bilateral and multilateral trade relations, and regulation of foreign investments.
  • General Directorate of Trade Policy and other management units, responsible for domestic trade policy, promotion of retail trade, and competition defense in trade-related areas.

Alongside these structures, the Ministry has the Undersecretariat of Economy, Commerce and Enterprise, which assumes common internal management functions, and the Technical General Secretariat, which provides legal and regulatory support to the entire department.

In summary, the Ministry of Economy, Commerce and Enterprise, headed by Carlos Cuerpo Caballero, concentrates the direction of the State's economic, financial, and commercial policy, positioning itself at the center of decisions on growth, financial stability, internationalization, and market regulation.

There is no regulation, in Spanish law nor in the institutional sources I handle, regarding the internal legal requirements of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to officially update its economic forecasts by country. This matter depends on the IMF's own legal and governance framework (its Articles of Agreement, internal rules, and management practices), which are not part of the information scope for which I am designed.

In general terms, what is publicly known about IMF forecasts is that they are prepared and revised according to its internal procedures for economic analysis and surveillance (for example, the surveillance exercise known as Article IV, or the preparation of reports such as the World Economic Outlook). However, the specific “legal requirements” — that is, the exact provisions in its statutes or internal regulations that determine when and how a forecast can or must be updated — require direct consultation of:

• The IMF's Articles of Agreement (its constitutive Articles of Agreement).
• The internal regulations of its Executive Board and Managing Director.
• The methodological and governance documentation published by the IMF itself on the preparation of forecasts.

As a specialized assistant, my scope focuses on Spanish political and institutional matters (General Courts, Government, regulations, political actors, press, and public debate in Spain). I do not have direct or systematic access to the IMF's internal regulations beyond what general public sources might reflect, and I cannot guarantee the legal accuracy of a detailed answer on the internal legal requirements of that international organization.

To obtain a truly solid answer to your specific question, I would recommend:

• Consulting the official IMF website, in the governance and economic policy frameworks sections, where formal processes for economic surveillance and report publication are often described.
• Reviewing directly the IMF's Articles of Agreement, which are the constituent treaty approved by member states.
• Examining methodology documents of the World Economic Outlook, the Fiscal Monitor, or the Global Financial Stability Report, where the principles governing forecast revisions are sometimes explained.

What I can help you with in depth is anything connected to the Spanish political and institutional sphere. For example:

• How the Government of Spain uses IMF, OECD, or European Commission forecasts in its official macroeconomic frameworks.
• How those forecasts are discussed in Congress or the Senate (appearances by the Bank of Spain, AIReF, Government, etc.).
• What implications international forecasts have on budget preparation, fiscal rules, or economic reforms in Spain.

If you are interested in redirecting the question towards any of these angles (for example, how IMF forecasts are integrated into Spanish political debate or budgetary regulations), I can offer you a much more detailed and tailored analysis.