The electric debt will continue to weigh on system charges during 2027, although much less than now. The latest forecast from the National Commission on Markets and Competition (CNMC) estimates an annual amount of 1,883.43 million euros in 2026, which will decrease to 1,006.72 million in 2027.
The drop is around 46.5% from one year to another. But that does not mean that a household's bill will automatically decrease by that same percentage. The debt is only one of the costs financed through the charges, and these, in turn, are only part of the bill.
Expected end in 2028
The CNMC currently divides the outstanding debt into two large blocks. The first is the Deficit Securitization Fund of the Electric System, FADE, which represented 77.5% of the outstanding debt at the end of 2025. The second corresponds to the tariff deficit of 2013.
The FADE will indeed reach the end of its life during 2027. The CNMC estimates that its annual amount will decrease from 1,605.67 million in 2026 to 728.96 million in 2027 and will be zero in 2028.
The deficit of 2013 will continue for another year. Its expected annual amount is 277.76 million in 2026, 2027, and 2028. That is why the regulator places 2028 as the year of complete satisfaction of the electric system debt.
| Year | FADE | Deficit of 2013 | Total annual amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1,605.67 million euros | 277.76 million euros | 1,883.43 million euros |
| 2027 | 728.96 million euros | 277.76 million euros | 1,006.72 million euros |
| 2028 | 0 euros | 277.76 million euros | 277.76 million euros |
The outstanding debt at the end of 2025 amounted to 3,552.12 million euros, a 37.98% decrease from a year earlier. Of that amount, 2,754.12 million corresponded to FADE and 797.99 million to the deficit of 2013.
Where this debt appears on the bill
The consumer does not receive a separate line with the name "electric debt." Its cost is integrated within the electric system charges, one of the regulated parts of the bill.
For 2026, the order from the Ministry for Ecological Transition that sets those charges establishes that 39.21% of the cost financed through the charges corresponds to the deficit. The rest is distributed among the specific remuneration for renewables, cogeneration and waste, non-peninsular systems, and other costs.
This allows knowing where the debt is within the bill, but not calculating an identical reduction for all consumers. The result depends on the charges approved by the Government for each fiscal year, the contracted power, consumption, the rate, and the other components of the bill.
It is not equivalent
Between 2026 and 2027, the annual debt falls by about 876.71 million euros. This reduction frees up part of the financing needs of the system.
However, there is no rule that requires converting euro for euro that drop into an equivalent reduction of the final bill. The charges are calculated each year taking into account the set of costs that must be covered, the forecasts of consumption and power, and the available income to finance them.
The Government must approve the charges applicable to 2027. Until that order is published, it cannot be determined how much the specific bill of a household will decrease for this reason.
Cheaper bill without the tax?
To these accounts, one must add the progressive reduction, until its final disappearance, of the Tax on the Value of the Production of Electric Energy, the so-called 7% generation tax.
The Government conveys that its definitive elimination could reduce the electricity bill by 6%. The tax will have a rate of 3.5% during 2027 and will go to 0% from January 1, 2028.
The tax cut and the debt are connected
The Government itself links both decisions in Royal Decree-Law 18/2026. The regulation justifies the cut of the tax to 3.5% because the costs associated with the annual payments of the pending collection rights of the electrical system will be reduced by approximately half in 2027 compared to 2026.
For 2028, the reasoning changes. The decree-law states that it will no longer be necessary to allocate resources from that tax to finance those costs and therefore sets a rate of 0%.
This also does not guarantee that all the lower tax pressure will automatically end up in the bill with a uniform percentage. The final effect will depend on how taxation impacts generation prices, the evolution of the wholesale market, and the charges that are approved.
How much can disappear from the charges
The most solid reference available is the annual debt. In 2026, 1,883.43 million euros are allocated to these collection rights; in 2027 it will be 1,006.72 million and in 2028, 277.76 million.
When the payment for 2028 is completed, that historical cost will cease to be part of the financing needs of the system. The amount that ultimately affects the consumer will then depend on what other regulated costs exist and how the charges for each year are set.
The official calendar contemplates that FADE will be liquidated in December 2027 and that the last payment corresponding to the deficit of 2013 will occur in 2028.