The heads of State and Government of the European Union meet this Thursday and Friday in Brussels at a summit loaded with tension over the negotiation of the next community budget, which enters a key phase with very distant positions between the so-called 'frugal' countries, supporters of more cuts, and others like Spain, which demand greater ambition. This is joined by other delicate debates for the cohesion of the bloc, such as the commercial response to China and migration policy, in a context where the recent crisis in Ceuta has placed Spain at the center of the discussion.
This is the first meeting of leaders since at the end of July nearly 80,000 migrants crossed from Morocco to Ceuta and, although the majority were returned in the first 48 hours, several thousand still remain in the autonomous city. What happened provoked a very critical reaction in some capitals, especially in Italy and Denmark, whose prime ministers, Giorgia Meloni and Mette Frederiksen, staged a common front to reproach decisions of Pedro Sánchez's Executive such as the extraordinary regularization, which they described as a pull effect.
The Spanish Government then reproached the lack of firmness in European solidarity when its border was under pressure and has since defended the speed in expelling migrants without the right to stay in European territory, as well as that the crisis has had "no impact" on the rest of the Schengen area, despite Italy using it as an argument to introduce controls on travelers coming from Spain.
The European Commission, which unlocked a package of aid of 114.7 million euros to strengthen border control in Ceuta and expedite returns, claims its support and solidarity with Spain, insists on the need to cooperate with Morocco and emphasizes that all migrants who crossed must be returned "quickly".
In this scenario, the leaders will approve a text of conclusions in which the good figures that point to a strong decrease in irregular entries and an increase in returns in the last year in the Union will be highlighted, and they will warn of the risk of the instrumentalization of migration flows by third countries seeking to destabilize Europe through hybrid threats, according to the latest draft consulted by Europa Press.
Ceuta and Melilla in the European spotlight
The draft, however, avoids directly referring to the crisis in Ceuta in the section dedicated to migration and addresses it in a specific point where the "special situation" of Ceuta and Melilla is recognized as the only land border of the Union with Africa.
In that same paragraph, European leaders express "their solidarity and support for Spain in the face of the sudden influx of migrants arriving in Ceuta," and celebrate the financial and operational backing provided by the EU in light of the "specific situation of the two autonomous cities."
In the Spanish Executive, they do not hide their satisfaction with the text and, in particular, with the recognition of the character of European border cities of Ceuta and Melilla. Government sources maintain that it is the result of the work done in recent weeks to explain the situation and respond to the numerous questions raised by the partners.
Division over budget ambition
The summit will also be the first moment in which the Twenty-Seven discuss at the highest level the latest compromise proposal on the budget starting from 2027 sent to the capitals last Saturday by the rotating presidency of the EU Council, which is held by Ireland this semester.
The first reactions confirm that the positions of the two major blocs remain very far apart: on one side, the 'frugal' countries, such as Germany or the Netherlands, which demand new cuts, and on the other, countries like Spain, Italy, or Poland, grouped as the "Friends of Cohesion," who warn that excessive reduction could "undermine the Union's ability to meet its priorities and preserve its credibility."
The document that will be examined at the meeting proposes a cut of 141 billion euros compared to the initial proposal of the European Commission, which amounted to 1.76 trillion euros for the seven-year framework (2028-2034). This adjustment would mean a new reduction of 8% and leave the budget at 1.62 trillion euros.
To the discrepancies regarding the total volume is added the discussion about new sources of income to fund the community budget. The proposal maintains contributions linked to large companies, tobacco, and electronic waste, in addition to increasing resources from the carbon border adjustment mechanism, but excludes other figures defended by the European Parliament, such as taxes on large digital platforms, cryptocurrencies, and online gambling.
Despite everything, the leaders conceive this meeting as the moment to set red lines and clarify positions, but not to close a definitive agreement. The president of the European Council, António Costa, maintains as a goal to complete the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF, for its initials in English) before the end of the year, although several delegations have already warned that they do not feel an imminent pressure from the calendar.
In the case of Spain, the electoral advance to November 29 will force Pedro Sánchez to combine his role as a candidate with the upcoming European meetings on the budget, in Ireland on November 13, coinciding with the start of the campaign, and presumably in Brussels on the 27th, when it concludes. In Moncloa, they emphasize that this circumstance will not diminish the negotiating capacity of the Government, stressing that it will not be in office until after the elections.
At the same time, the dialogue opened by Brussels with Beijing to address trade imbalances will also appear on the first day, after this week the Chinese government announced its willingness to halve its exports of hybrid vehicles to Europe in four years. The Twenty-Seven value these initial advances after a period of tension, but they want to continue working on new "robust" trade defense instruments, as Paris and Berlin are now demanding, to be prepared if the dialogue fails.
Response to Russia's hybrid attacks
On Friday, the heads of state and government will analyze the increase in hybrid attacks attributed to Russia on European territory, with the intention of reinforcing the bloc's response capacity in light of the increase in recent weeks of incidents with drones in the Baltic countries, in the Black Sea, and at the German airport of Leipzig.
Community sources do not foresee concrete decisions at this meeting, but, given that more and more member states are suffering this type of aggression, it is expected that the leaders will share experiences on how they are facing them and study possible coordinated responses at the EU level.
The debate comes after ideas have emerged such as the creation of an emergency protocol to coordinate member states in the face of hybrid attacks, or the establishment of a European Security Council that includes partners such as the United Kingdom, Canada, or Ukraine, proposals put forward by the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen.
In addition, European leaders are expected to reaffirm their political, military, and financial support for Ukraine, in a session in which the physical presence of the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, is contemplated, and which will be conditioned by the latest diplomatic movements between the United States and Russia and by the continuity of Russian attacks against Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.