The Congress will return to activity with a long list of pending reforms, but PSOE and Sumar do not have enough votes to push them forward on their own. The end of the legislature will thus return prominence to Junts, ERC, PNV, and Podemos, in addition to EH Bildu and other groups whose position may be decisive depending on each vote.
The arithmetic explains a good part of the problem. The Government needs to rebuild a majority practically initiative by initiative, and not all the partners who facilitated Pedro Sánchez's investiture maintain the same priorities nor propose the same conditions.
Among the regulations facing this examination are the Film Law, the protection of minors in digital environments, or the reform of the Citizen Security Law, in addition to the great political unknown of autumn: some eventual General State Budgets.
Junts, decisive in the Film Law
One of the first negotiations will come with the Draft Law on Film and Audiovisual Culture. The text passed the total amendments in June by a very narrow margin: 175 votes to 172, a snapshot of how much each vote counts.
Junts has managed to imprint part of its agenda in the negotiation and has registered numerous amendments related to co-official languages, aid to the sector, tax incentives, and independent production. Among them is that at least 15% of the Fund for the Promotion of Film and Audiovisual should be allocated to audiovisual in official languages other than Spanish and others recognized statutorily.
The independentist group itself stated during the total debate that the agreement reached incorporated a "very important footprint" of Junts on linguistic, fiscal, and cultural issues.
ERC also has the capacity to strain the negotiation. According to information gathered by DEMÓCRATA before the summer, the ERC group has proposed more demanding positions on two of the sensitive issues of the regulation: the screen quota and the exhibition window.
The protection of minors seeks a majority
Another examination will arrive with the Draft Law for the Protection of Minors in Digital Environments. Its presentation has already begun the work and the PSOE wants to incorporate changes regarding algorithmic manipulation and minors' access to social networks. The Government has set the minimum age for giving consent in certain matters related to one's own image at 16 years and also bets on that age for access to social networks.
Here there is also no closed majority. Sumar views favorably the changes promoted by the socialists, while the conversations will have to extend to Junts and the PP, according to sources from the presentation consulted by DEMÓCRATA.
The Gag Law highlights the problem of the allies
Even more complex is the reform of the Organic Law on Citizen Security, one of the priorities that Sumar wants to complete before the end of the legislature.
The initiative has been trapped for some time precisely because of the differences within the block that would have to approve it. PNV and Podemos maintain positions that hinder the agreement, while Sumar tries to reactivate a reform that already failed in the past legislature due to the discrepancies among the Government's allies.
Podemos, moreover, registered its own proposal to reform the Citizen Security Law, a sign that it shares the objective of modifying the norm but not necessarily the scope of the reform proposed by the rest of the majority.
And above all, the Budgets
The greatest challenge would come if Pedro Sánchez fulfills his commitment to present new General State Budgets. In that case, the Government would need to build a majority that brings together forces with very different political and territorial interests.
The coalition partner, Sumar, claims that it wants to negotiate accounts to approve them. However, other usual allies of the Executive doubt that there is a budget negotiation with real possibilities of successfully concluding, according to sources consulted by DEMÓCRATA.
The parliamentary final stretch thus returns to a known situation throughout the legislature: Moncloa can set the priorities, but does not control its outcome. Junts, ERC, PNV, Podemos, and the rest of the allies will have the capacity to modify, delay, or prevent some of the pending reforms. With the electoral horizon increasingly present, rebuilding that majority will likely be more difficult in each vote.